Recent content by BurtBurton

P/E ratios look cheap?!? Yeah right....they are still historically above average, and earnings haven't fully been adjusted down. Take a look at CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP and Enterprise value/sales.....all pretty good indicators of value.....they're all still VERY high.

Pricing going up doesn't necessarily mean earnings go up. Despite having a demand shock like we've never seen before, we're also having a supply shock at the same time. Increasing the money supply may increase prices, but given the supply shocks that may be around the corner with the rapid...

Dozu - A simple question of opportunity cost. Would you rather hold a company with a 50 P/E that pays out a 100% dividend (i.e. a 2% ROI) where you have to risk if they are going to go bankrupt when they can't make their debt payments? Or would you rather just hold your cash, forgo the 2% and...

Ken - I happen to agree with you, but what are your thoughts on this latest rally? I've managed to protect most of my accounts during this downturn, but curious to hear your thoughts on the next week or so. When are you going short? I've started nibbling the last couple days, but I'm wondering...

Steve - We should have all learned this in the financial crisis. Gold has behaved very similarly to Oct '08 when it crashed along with the market and then rebounded quickly by the end of year. It was the result of a liquidity crisis, which the Fed has backstopped (probably having learned a bit...

Do you think interest rates can continue to stay as low as they are?

Lol - remember Ray Dalio saying cash is trash in late January?

If you think a 50 P/E is fair, good on you. That still doesn't change the fact that you are going to see bankruptcies skyrocket as debt-laden corporations struggle to refinance debt. That means your 50 P/E stock is headed straight to zero. Where am I putting my money? Cash, precious metals and...

If inflation starts picking up, fed will finally have to raise interest rates and that will send housing prices down. But I agree.....if you can get good cash flowing real estate in this environment, it would be a good long term investment.

Gold, Anyone?

Please tell me how shipping won't be affected? Oil consumption is tanking around the country as people shelter in place. How do you think that gas gets into their local gas station? Who gets all the plastic cups, plates, food and drink into food service locations? Who moves containers of...

That's very true. But let's be real - defaults aren't going to start piling up only one or two months after the disaster strikes. The US housing market peaked in 2007. People didn't start defaulting and causing failures in banking until 2008. I think the dramatic sudden stop in this case will...

I think you're seeing a short term bump in sentiment. Look at all the things that have happened in the past few days. Italy's numbers are finally coming down; Our own government is talking about ways to send people back to work, and the federal government just issued a 2T stimulus package (the...

I don't think so.....Market Cap/GDP (Buffett Indicator), CAPE ratio were very high before this virus even hit. Add to that an absolutely insane level of corporate debt, and the market wasn't even close to fairly valued. You're going to see bankruptcies and defaults on high yield debt this year...

Here's a thought - buy gold and short SPY as a hedge. If the economy does actually come back quickly, you're going to see rampant inflation (i.e. - gold goes up). Since Fed has backstopped liquidity, I don't see gold going down like it did in March again, so if SPY goes down, gold should remain...