There could be an interesting options play in the Yen here.
For anyone not following the Yen, trade has been dominated for the last few months by the tug of war between portfolio and trade inflows into Yen, and the BoJ desire to restrain the currency in order not to choke off their nascent economic recovery.
Recently the BoJ has been selling Yen and buying literally tens of billions of dollars, driving the Yen from 105 down to 112. However, it now appears to have reached levels were there is little or no desire in the free market to sell Yen - the BoJ has become the only major seller. My theory is that when it stops selling, the market tends to spike quite rapidly.
The two recent examples are 8th March, from 112.10 to 111.25, and earlier today, from 111.10 to 110.25.
Whatever the cause of these spikes, they are clearly related to the pattern of intervention. This intervention is based on the upcoming financial year end in Japan, on 31st March - the BoJ basically wants currency losses to stay off the books for this year, allowing multinationals' balance sheets to look a lot better in their year end accounts. So, we can probably expect intervention to impact the market until the end of the month at least.
Now, a market which spikes 100 ticks in one minute is rather favourable for a long options position. I am thinking that the front month straddles could be an excellent way to play this. Load up, then stick your bids and offers below and above the market, and trade the gamma for all its worth.
Any comments from the options players here?
For anyone not following the Yen, trade has been dominated for the last few months by the tug of war between portfolio and trade inflows into Yen, and the BoJ desire to restrain the currency in order not to choke off their nascent economic recovery.
Recently the BoJ has been selling Yen and buying literally tens of billions of dollars, driving the Yen from 105 down to 112. However, it now appears to have reached levels were there is little or no desire in the free market to sell Yen - the BoJ has become the only major seller. My theory is that when it stops selling, the market tends to spike quite rapidly.
The two recent examples are 8th March, from 112.10 to 111.25, and earlier today, from 111.10 to 110.25.
Whatever the cause of these spikes, they are clearly related to the pattern of intervention. This intervention is based on the upcoming financial year end in Japan, on 31st March - the BoJ basically wants currency losses to stay off the books for this year, allowing multinationals' balance sheets to look a lot better in their year end accounts. So, we can probably expect intervention to impact the market until the end of the month at least.
Now, a market which spikes 100 ticks in one minute is rather favourable for a long options position. I am thinking that the front month straddles could be an excellent way to play this. Load up, then stick your bids and offers below and above the market, and trade the gamma for all its worth.
Any comments from the options players here?