HEARD ON THE STREET
Dow Jones: the Premium Question
Murdoch's Lofty Offer Could Deter Rivals; Buffett Unlikely to Bid
By SUSAN PULLIAM, GREGORY ZUCKERMAN and KAREN RICHARDSON, WSJ Online, May 2, 2007; Page C1
Dow Jones long has traded at a premium relative to other newspaper companies. The question, after Rupert Murdoch's audacious bid for the parent of The Wall Street Journal, is how much is a buyer willing to pay for what now is viewed as one of the media world's high-profile prizes?
News Corp., the international media conglomerate controlled by Mr. Murdoch, made an unsolicited $5 billion buyout offer for Dow Jones, sending shares of the New York media company up $19.87, or 55%, to $56.20 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange, and lifting the stocks of other newspaper companies. (See a chart of newspaper stocks' jumps.1)
News Corp. said the offer was "friendly," calling the Journal "one of the world's great newspapers." But the Bancroft family, Dow Jones's controlling shareholders, told the board they would vote shares constituting slightly more than 50% of the voting power outstanding against the $60-a-share offer.
The offer represented a lofty multiple, equal to nearly 40 times the media company's 2007 projected earnings -- higher than Google's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 31. Even before the offer, Dow Jones traded at a 20% to 30% premium above other newspapers.
The offer is 65% above the close of Dow Jones shares Monday, and more than 80% above its 52-week low, reached in September. The stock closed at its highest level in five years yesterday, on its biggest share-volume day in at least 30 years. The shares are still more than $20 below their record close in June 2000.
DOW (JONES) RALLY [Tuesday, May 1, 2007]
Key facts about one of the biggest days in history for shares of Dow Jones & Co.:
⢠Closed at five-year high of $56.20, up $19.87, or 55% .
⢠Intraday high of $58.47 was the best since April 10, 2002.
⢠The $19.87 gain added $1.66 billion in market capitalization.
⢠DJ is still off $20-plus from its record of $76.75 in June 2000.
⢠Meanwhile, News Corp. Class A shares fell 4.21% -- a loss in market value of $3 billion
(roughly what all of DJ was valued at as of Monday).
Source: WSJ Market Data Group
The offer's premium raises the question of whether Mr. Murdoch views Dow Jones as a trophy property that would cap decades of media deal making. If so, the deal would be more akin to high-price acquisitions of sports teams and skyscrapers. That would also mean few other bidders might challenge him, leaving the Bancroft family as his only hurdle.
But even if Mr. Murdoch views Dow Jones as a trophy, there are strategic reasons for him to do the deal. Dow Jones's content and brands could help him build a global business brand, which would include the soon-to-be-launched Fox business news channel, which could benefit from an alliance with The Wall Street Journal. The Journal currently has an alliance with CNBC. Mr. Murdoch could also sell the company's content through his media empire.
"He has a history of identifying assets that he really likes and that make strategic sense, and paying what is necessary to win," says Mark Gallogly, founding partner of Centerbridge Partners LP, whose background is in media businesses.
If, on the other hand, other potential buyers can see ways to justify the price, either through synergies, cost-cutting or the view that Dow Jones is worth roughly double what stock investors were willing to pay the day before the offer, then a bidding war could ensue. The emergence of wealthy bidders such as Sam Zell and David Geffen for Tribune Co. shows the appeal of newspapers to wealthy individuals.
Shares of Dow Jones generally have traded at higher multiples than peers in recent years, in part because the company has less exposure to newspapers than some rivals do. About 60% of Dow Jones's revenue this year is expected to come from print publications, according to analysts. New York Times Co. is expected to see more than 90% of its revenue from print, after recently selling its broadcast-television unit.
At the same time, The Wall Street Journal is holding up better than many other papers, has a coveted demographic, high advertising rates, a respected brand and a growing online franchise that charges for subscribers, unlike most others.
The Journal itself has bucked the declining circulation trends that have hurt other newspapers. For the six months ended March 31, the Journal's circulation was up slightly, versus a 2.1% decline for newspapers overall. The Journal's Web site, the largest subscription news site on the Internet, has grown strongly, with paid subscriptions rising 20% in the first quarter to 931,000. Analysts expect Dow Jones to earn $1.51 a share this year and $1.80 next year, up from $1.11 in 2006.
'Unique Property'
"The company has become far more oriented toward improving profitability without sacrificing the editorial integrity," says David Wallack, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Associates, which is the largest outside shareholder of Dow Jones stock with 9.5 million shares, according to LionShares. He says Dow Jones is "a highly cash-generative company, its balance sheet is in good shape, and it's a unique property."
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