Quote from Gringinho:
Well, so this means you are bull on USD ?
Most analysts I've seen cite the record-breaking deficits in trade balance and government budgets along with busting consumer credit increase as huge warning signs.
No, actually I'm very concerned. Things are working in Bush's favor for the near term, not the longer term. If everything goes to hell in December, that won't be any help for the democrats, and it's possible that Greenspan can keep the party going for another six months (if not longer) before things start to deteriorate. Economic shifts are like aircraft carriers; shock events aside, they are big and slow and take time to change course.
Who's dreaming? All I said was the odds are in Bush's favor, and they are.
If Iraq gets better and the economy gets hotter, Bush is a lock. If Iraq merely stabilizes and the economy treads water, Bush still has the edge because of the terrorist premium and the "finish what we started" mentality of many Americans.
Last but not least, Kerry has not been able to get ahead of Bush even with all the bad news that has hit the white house - a sign of serious disconnect. So again, it's an odds thing. Bush still has an overall edge from here, though only a modest one, based on potential trends for the next six months. What happens in 2005 is another question entirely.
That's a matter of opinion many would disagree on - some would see a democrat in the white house as an invitation for increased terrorist threats. A mongrel dog is more likely to attack a weak opponent than a strong one.
If I were a bookie I would still be giving Bush the spread right now, nothing to do w/ my political opinions.
... good post though, as usual).