Why does the retail investor continue to lose?

[smallfil]

I mean it one sense we could be potentially saying the same thing just viewing it differently. However for majority of cases I still believe and hold the opinion subconsciously they do not want to make money. If you ask everyone here if they want to make money trading 99.9% of them will of course say you’re wrong! I really do want to make money! That’s stupid why wouldn’t I want to! But that has nothing to do with subconsciously actually wanting to make money or not. I guess for an example it’s like asking people if they want to be in really good shape, yet they never even do one push up. If you ask those same people if they want to be in great shape most of them would again say yes of course! But how much can you truly want something if you can’t even take the smallest step toward that.

ps: just to be clear not trying to debate and maybe I am incorrect and failing to properly explain what I am trying to say. But I think you get the macro point at least.

Ed Seykota said it best. We in the end, get what we want out of the stockmarket. How else, do you explain the legions of traders who continue to trade, despite having a negative expectation? Like the gamblers in Las Vegas, they hope to one day, get that big score to make all their losses back and then some. Only to lose more monies in the process? These traders never backtest their trading systems----just assume they will make monies out of it. Truth is hard to accept. They are trading a negative expectation game, they are guaranteed to lose like most of the Wallstreet Bets crowd. There were a few who made out pretty good but, those ones reigned in their greed at the right time. Most hanged on until they lost all their gains and monies on top of it.

 

[newwurldmn]

The example was terrible. The markets are expected value positive and the casino is expected value negative. In the casino players play against the casino. In the market, players “play” against other players.

Many people who enter a casino, Vegas, or the market....truly believe they will hit it big. I don't believe those people to have an expected rate of return that is negative.
Everyone enters the casino, Vegas, or the market...with a bright, rosy, face....but leave looking like a depressed clown.
Many people have enormous hopes, dreams, magic and prayer that lovely money will fall into their laps. But the real world does not work like that.

You, a trader or gambler, have to be realistic, intelligent, neutral, objective, open-minded, creative, patient and calm...but also bold and ambitious at the same time. Many people lack these unique, well-rounded, qualities and traits to succeed.

 

[MacBookProHo]

The markets are expected value positive and the casino is expected value negative.

In the casino players play against the casino.
In the market, players “play” against other players.

Well, that's just semantics, meaningless details and technicalities.
Either way, in a casino or Vegas or the market...it's essentially Just you, the player, against the wide variables that is the big, mean, world.

And not many people participants are thoroughly prepared, or have what it takes to defeat the big boss lady market in the moody, temperamental, but rewarding casino.

 

[TheDawn]

I mean it one sense we could be potentially saying the same thing just viewing it differently. However for majority of cases I still believe and hold the opinion subconsciously they do not want to make money. If you ask everyone here if they want to make money trading 99.9% of them will of course say you’re wrong! I really do want to make money! That’s stupid why wouldn’t I want to! But that has nothing to do with subconsciously actually wanting to make money or not. I guess for an example it’s like asking people if they want to be in really good shape, yet they never even do one push up. If you ask those same people if they want to be in great shape most of them would again say yes of course! But how much can you truly want something if you can’t even take the smallest step toward that.

ps: just to be clear not trying to debate and maybe I am incorrect and failing to properly explain what I am trying to say. But I think you get the macro point at least.

Yes we are saying the same thing. People do want to make money trading but they really don't know how or what it takes so it looks like they don't want to make money. It's like somebody who wants to lose weight but still reaches for a donut.

 

[TheDawn]

The example was terrible. The markets are expected value positive and the casino is expected value negative. In the casino players play against the casino. In the market, players “play” against other players.

Not really. Unless you are trading in the futures or fixed income markets where PFOF is disallowed, you are essentially against the dealers like in a casino.

 

[Concinnity]

Yes we are saying the same thing. People do want to make money trading but they really don't know how or what it takes so it looks like they don't want to make money. It's like somebody who wants to lose weight but still reaches for a donut.

Yeah, well now that I think about it, it's even more hopeless and improbable for most people to be successful than I described. Because what you say is true a lot of people don't know how or what it takes, but I am saying even if they did know how or what it takes, they still wouldn't do that because they don't truly want to make money. At best we could say they don't want it bad enough to do what it takes.

 

[JackMorgan]

Not really. Unless you are trading in the futures or fixed income markets where PFOF is disallowed, you are essentially against the dealers like in a casino.

Absurd. Doesnt even make any sense. You sir, have drank the ape kool aid