You mistranslated. The very point is that the market is not the traders. It's like in law where law has made a distinction between the Nation and the People when the french Constitution has been written. The Market is not the Traders in a similar sense that the Nation is not the People. It is recognised by economists that an investor is mostly rational INDIVIDUALLY relative to its personal interest so when they talk about irrationality it is about the COLLECTIVE behavior. I say that they are somehow right that the collective behavior is irrational if one consider that relative to the Traders but that it is not so relative to the Market because the Market is not the Traders. Unlike law field where the Nation has been explicitly made the distinction between the Nation and the People, the distinction between the two, like efficiency, is a concept to be demonstrated. Since nobody has found any rational equation for the market the default paradigm cannot be contested. I pretend to have found such equation, now with the efficiency necessity it is impossible that anybody even academics can ever make a publication that can challenge the efficiency paradigm. In fact I don't say that the market isn't efficient, I say that I can precise what efficiency really means because the concept of efficiency is at the moment among academics themselves fuzzy so that there exist many contradictory concepts of efficiency, at the end it has become some sort of tautology.
Why a traditional tecnical analyst cannot trade
- Thread starter harrytrader
- Start date
...thanks for the correction. However, I am still missing the chain of causality. If collectively the crowd is irrational, and the crowd drives the market, how can ANY mathematics be applied? Simply put, the result in the markey of the madness of the crowd is still madness. BTW, what time zone are you in that you are up at this ungodly hour?
This guy wants to make me believe that my english is so bad that I can be pushed to commit suicide 
. Re-read what I said above: Market is not the Traders or the Crowd. If you model the market as if it was the crowd you would obtain what scientific researchers like J Doyne Farmer would obtain with agents modelling that is to say forecast of "little ripples" in his own words (see his article referenced on my homepage at http://www.econometric-wave.com) which is very far from forecast like mine which can forecast "big waves" as well as "little ripple". What's more he doesn't make forecast on price but only pattern emergence which is the most easiest type of detection. I don't use the paradigm of J. Doyne Farmer - which is the paradigm of 99.999% of scientific market researchers on this planet - that the market is the crowd or traders agents because I know that it is impossible to obtain anything accurate at all except pattern detection like those of J Doyne Farmer.
. Re-read what I said above: Market is not the Traders or the Crowd. If you model the market as if it was the crowd you would obtain what scientific researchers like J Doyne Farmer would obtain with agents modelling that is to say forecast of "little ripples" in his own words (see his article referenced on my homepage at http://www.econometric-wave.com) which is very far from forecast like mine which can forecast "big waves" as well as "little ripple". What's more he doesn't make forecast on price but only pattern emergence which is the most easiest type of detection. I don't use the paradigm of J. Doyne Farmer - which is the paradigm of 99.999% of scientific market researchers on this planet - that the market is the crowd or traders agents because I know that it is impossible to obtain anything accurate at all except pattern detection like those of J Doyne Farmer.Quote from harrytrader:
This guy wants to make me believe that my english is so bad that I can be pushed to commit suicide
From your previous posts, I get some hints that you believe market is manipulated by few operators, and not controlled by the crowd.
My view is market is sometime is manipulated, other time it is drifting. Price moves in different fractals all the time. If the price cannot go up any more (overbought), then it starts going down. Initiated by some brave souls who can afford to burn money, this is noticed by the crowds and they wait to see if brave souls are successful, then they follow.
Now, price is oversold, and again it moves opposite direction after initial sideways, it is happening (retracements) in all different fractals. So, people get confused from continuos battle between bulls and bear, and cannot see the trend clearly; and they lose money.