Which way? China

Is China Stockpiling Resources to Prepare for War?
May 29, 2024
Is China's Economy Facing Its Own 'Lost Decades'?
By Micah McCartney China News Reporter
https://www.newsweek.com/china-stoc...aiwan-economy-gold-oil-ukraine-russia-1905113

China's rapid accumulation of commodities has drawn global attention and led some analysts to speculate President Xi Jinping's country is girding itself for war over Taiwan.

"Xi seems to have studied the sanctions playbook the West used against Russia over Ukraine and subsequently initiated long-lead protective measures to batten down the hatches of China's economy to resist similar pressure," former Office of Naval Intelligence head Michael Studeman wrote recently on foreign policy analysis website War on the Rocks.

China claims democratic Taiwan as its territory, though Beijing's ruling Chinese Communist Party has never governed there. U.S. officials believe Xi has instructed Chinese forces to be prepared to invade the island by 2027, though opinion in Washington is divided on the reality of this threat.

Among the resources being stockpiled is gold. Gold prices hit record highs in recent months as China's central bank diversified its holdings and consumers turned to the safe haven amid a flagging stock market and the country's strict capital controls.

The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 18th consecutive month in April, boosting them by 5 percent in dollar terms following an 8 percent rise in March.

"Gold reserves have always been an important part of China's diversified international reserves." Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the U.S., told Newsweek when asked whether the stockpiling was a sign of preparations for war. "From a long-term and strategic perspective, China dynamically adjusts the allocation of its international reserve portfolio as needed to ensure the safety, liquidity, preservation, and appreciation of international reserves," he added.

Taiwan has not commented publicly on China's stockpiling.

China's buying streak extends to oil as well. Already the world's largest importer, China bought a record 11.3 million barrels per day last year. However, this 10 percent increase came amid increased demand for fuel after the end of China's strict pandemic-era restrictions.

"China is also working to mitigate its exposure to potential food and energy embargoes, building up its strategic petroleum reserves and constructing coal-fired plants with renewed fervor," Studeman said. He added that Xi expects a strong international backlash over a potential invasion of Taiwan and is preparing China to ride it out.

Tensions Rising
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait rose further last week. Chinese forces kicked off two days of drills around Taiwan to punish the island over its inauguration of Beijing-skeptic President Lai Ching-te. China said the exercises served to test the People's Liberation Army's ability to "occupy and control key areas."

Another potential flashpoint is the South China Sea, where China is locked in an escalating territorial dispute with the Philippines, which has a mutual defense treaty with the U.S.

Other analysts have argued China may be poised to use what economists have called an economic "nuclear option," or intentional devaluation of its currency to boost its exports.

person-handles-gold-ingots.jpg

This file photo shows a pile of gold ingots. Gold is among the commodities China has been rapidly buying up as it diversifies away from dollar-denominated assets. Marc Garanger/Getty Images

Still others believe that China's stockpiling of resources does not necessarily signal imminent war over Taiwan, saying that increasing autonomy and reducing the West's ability to weaponize these resources against China is a strategic move in its own right.

"What is likely driving Beijing's acceleration of efforts to improve China's self-reliance and potential sanction resilience is not so much preparation for military adventurism, but rather a reaction to how quickly and how united the West acted to economically punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine," Nathan Attrill, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Newsweek.

"China is much more exposed to the global economy than Russia was, and this gives the West leverage over China that its leaders absolutely do not want," he added.

Under Xi's leadership, the Chinese government has been seeking greater control over resources contributing to its national security and prosperity, Attrill said. "Not just for any future conflict, but to make China strong on its own terms and able to achieve its foreign policy goals without the need to fight."

The theories that stockpiling could be a sign of preparations for war were not new, said Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at financial services company StoneX Group Inc.

He compared the situation with the U.S.'s creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, "when the U.S. becomes dependent on Middle Eastern oil and realizes it could be lost any time."

Autonomy is China's "overriding strategic goal," he added.
 
China Warns Fliers to Keep Window Shades Down on Security Fears
  • Third of airports are used by both military and civil aircraft
  • Window shades are usually requested to be kept up for safety
By Shikhar Gupta June 25, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...des-down-on-security-fears?srnd=homepage-asia

China’s Ministry of State Security has warned passengers against opening window shades during take-off and landing at airports used by both civil and military aviation, a move that runs counter to prevailing practices regarding aviation safety.

The warning, issued on WeChat Monday, was aimed at limiting the leak of sensitive military information through photos and videos taken by passengers during take-off or landing at dual-use airports, the South China Morning Post
reported.

The ministry said in its post that passengers using dual-use facilities — almost a third of China’s airports — are prohibited from capturing images or videos of sensitive areas. It cited a recent incident in which a foreign national was suspected to have “illegally” captured images from the window of their plane.

Another flight was ordered to return to the gate for security checks after a passenger “repeatedly” opened his window shade during take-off to take photos. The passenger was then detained for seven days, the ministry said.

Passengers around the world are often asked to have their window shades up during take-off and landing for safety reasons, including to aid with evacuation in the case of emergency and for rescuers to be able to spot smoke and fire, according to Amsterdam’s Schipol Airport. However, the rules vary by airline and are not legal requirements.
 
New ‘alliance’ calls out China’s bad cyber behaviour
Andrew Tillett Foreign affairs, defence correspondent Jul 10, 2024
https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...t-china-s-bad-cyber-behaviour-20240710-p5jsgo

Japan and South Korea’s willingness to back an Australian-led statement accusing China of cyberspying signals the emergence of a new de facto alliance fed up with Beijing’s relentless campaign of intrusions in government and private sector networks.

The two countries have been reluctant to call out China’s cyberespionage, but months of diplomatic work and discussions among security agencies and technical experts led to Tokyo and Seoul adding their voice – a welcome surprise to officials involved in the behind-the-scenes work.

8251f2b24c279c646469881a2d3a4cf5e5465fb1

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles in Washington for meetings of NATO, where he is expected to discuss China’s cyber behaviour. AP

Japanese and South Korean involvement has provided a powerful counter-argument to China’s repeated denials it engages in industrial-scale hacking. Beijing typically dismisses those accusations as a US and Five Eyes-inspired creation to “smear” China.

Similarly, it is hoped that Tokyo and Seoul calling out China will be noticed by other Asian capitals that may not give as much credence to an Anglo-centric statement.

“Japan and Korea is a big deal for us,” one senior official told The Australian Financial Review.

“This is not something they do frequently like the Five Eyes. We see it as a pretty significant step.”

The Australian-initiated attribution is a further down payment on Australian and Korean ministers’ desire to work more closely with Japan, including on cybersecurity.

When Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong hosted their Korean counterparts in Melbourne in May, they resolved to “explore trilateral co-operation” with Japan.

In June, Mr Marles met his Japanese and Korean counterparts on the sidelines of the Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore, the first trilateral defence ministers meeting involving the three countries.

After decades of historical animosity, relations between Japan and South Korea have warmed significantly in the past couple of years, with the United States orchestrating the breakthrough amid rising regional anxiety over China.

On Tuesday, the Australian Signals Directorate took the lead to publish new advice about a hacking group with close links to China’s powerful Ministry of State Security.

The group, dubbed APT40, exploits compromised or ageing devices to breach defences, including widely used software programs. ASD said the group had repeatedly targeted government and private sector networks across the region and in one case managed to steal hundreds of usernames and passwords from an Australian organisation in 2022.

Australia’s Five Eyes allies the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand put their name to the statement, along with Japan, South Korea and Germany.

The statement was issued three weeks after Mr Albanese hosted Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Canberra, where it is believed the prime minister expressed concern over Beijing’s concerted cyber activities.

Mr Marles is expected to discuss China’s cyber behaviour with counterparts at this week’s NATO summit in Washington, where leaders from Japan and South Korea are also attending.

Australian cybersecurity officials have an approach of never publicly blaming a group or foreign government for a cyber intrusion without 100 per cent certainty, a process that can take months or years.

But once they have concrete proof, officials will then begin canvassing like-minded governments about adding their name to a joint statement. Those countries will often have their own experts examine the strength of the evidence, and it can take months of talks and finessing the language in statements and technical advice before it is released.

“There is an increasing level of worry about the prevalence of these cyber activities and it’s hitting government, industries and every part of our economies and society,” the official said.

“We are working hard very with partners in the region to make them aware of the threat environment.”

Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior fellow Euan Graham said the Japanese and South Korean stance was a contrast to South-East Asian nations’ reluctance to criticise China publicly.

“It significantly breaks the cultural mould that while Asian partners share a lot of common threats with Australia, they tend to downplay their public critique of China,” he said.

“This widens the circle from the usual suspects, aka the Five Eyes, and points out indirectly these countries are aware and at risk of China’s cyber activities.”
 
China's operation to influence politics and elections in other nations.

China-linked ‘Spamouflage’ network mimics Americans online to sway US political debate
https://apnews.com/article/china-di...-us-election-a2b396518bafd8e36635a3796c8271d7

WASHINGTON (AP) — When he first emerged on social media, the user known as Harlan claimed to be a New Yorker and an Army veteran who supported Donald Trump for president. Harlan said he was 29, and his profile picture showed a smiling, handsome young man.

A few months later, Harlan underwent a transformation. Now, he claimed to be 31 and from Florida.

New research into Chinese disinformation networks targeting American voters shows Harlan’s claims were as fictitious as his profile picture, which analysts think was created using artificial intelligence.

As voters prepare to cast their ballots this fall, China has been making its own plans, cultivating networks of fake social media users designed to mimic Americans. Whoever or wherever he really is, Harlan is a small part of a larger effort by U.S. adversaries to use social media to influence and upend America’s political debate.

The account was traced back to Spamouflage, a Chinese disinformation group, by analysts at Graphika, a New York-based firm that tracks online networks. Known to online researchers for several years, Spamouflage earned its moniker through its habit of spreading large amounts of seemingly unrelated content alongside disinformation.

“One of the world’s largest covert online influence operations — an operation run by Chinese state actors — has become more aggressive in its efforts to infiltrate and to sway U.S. political conversations ahead of the election,” Jack Stubbs, Graphika’s chief intelligence officer, told The Associated Press.

Intelligence and national security officials have said that Russia, China and Iran have all mounted online influence operations targeting U.S. voters ahead of the November election. Russia remains the top threat, intelligence officials say, even as Iran has become more aggressive in recent months, covertly supporting U.S. protests against the war in Gaza and attempting to hack into the email systems of the two presidential candidates.

China, however, has taken a more cautious, nuanced approach. Beijing sees little advantage in supporting one presidential candidate over the other, intelligence analysts say. Instead, China’s disinformation efforts focus on campaign issues particularly important to Beijing — such as American policy toward Taiwan — while seeking to undermine confidence in elections, voting and the U.S. in general.

Officials have said it’s a longer-term effort that will continue well past Election Day as China and other authoritarian nations try to use the internet to erode support for democracy.

Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu rejected Graphika’s findings as full of “prejudice and malicious speculation” and said that “China has no intention and will not interfere” in the election.

X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, suspended several of the accounts linked to the Spamouflage network after questions were raised about their authenticity. The company did not respond to questions about the reasons for the suspensions, or whether they were connected to Graphika’s report.

TikTok also removed accounts linked to Spamouflage, including Harlan’s.

“We will continue to remove deceptive accounts and harmful misinformation as we protect the integrity of our platform during the US elections,” a TikTok spokesperson wrote in a statement emailed on Tuesday.

Compared with armed conflict or economic sanctions, online influence operations can be a low-cost, low-risk means of flexing geopolitical power. Given the increasing reliance on digital communications, the use of online disinformation and fake information networks is only likely to increase, said Max Lesser, senior analyst for emerging threats at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a national security think tank in Washington.

“We’re going to see a widening of the playing field when it comes to influence operations, where it’s not just Russia, China and Iran but you also see smaller actors getting involved,” Lesser said.

That list could include not only nations but also criminal organizations, domestic extremist groups and terrorist organizations, Lesser said.

When analysts first noticed Spamouflage five years ago, the network tended to post generically pro-China, anti-American content. In recent years, the tone sharpened as Spamouflage expanded and began focusing on divisive political topics like gun control, crime, race relations and support for Israel during its war in Gaza. The network also began creating large numbers of fake accounts designed to mimic American users.

Spamouflage accounts don’t post much original content, instead using platforms like X or TikTok to recycle and repost content from far-right and far-left users. Some of the accounts seemed designed to appeal to Republicans, while others cater to Democrats.

While Harlan’s accounts succeeded in getting traction — one video mocking President Joe Biden was seen 1.5 million times — many of the accounts created by the Spamouflage campaign did not. It’s a reminder that online influence operations are often a numbers game: the more accounts, the more content, the better the chance that one specific post goes viral.

Many of the accounts newly linked to Spamouflage took pains to pose as Americans, sometimes in obvious ways. “I am an American,” one of the accounts proclaimed. Some of the accounts gave themselves away by using stilted English or strange word choices. Some were clumsier than others: “Broken English, brilliant brain, I love Trump,” read the biographical section of one account.

Harlan’s profile picture, which Graphika researchers believe was created using AI, was identical to one used in an earlier account linked to Spamouflage. Messages sent to the person operating Harlan’s accounts were not returned.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top