HFT is a way
market control is a way
fundamental analysis long term investment is a way
days/weeks time frame technical/math/computer program prediction is a way
arbitrage is a way
...so many ways and all of these people can be in the same market...with winners and losers...
John holds math and econ degree. I believe he fundamentally understands the market extremely well while he can also build math model to predict what will happen. Well, what I mentioned before would be still the main reason how can someone becomes godlike.
market control is a way
fundamental analysis long term investment is a way
days/weeks time frame technical/math/computer program prediction is a way
arbitrage is a way
...so many ways and all of these people can be in the same market...with winners and losers...
John holds math and econ degree. I believe he fundamentally understands the market extremely well while he can also build math model to predict what will happen. Well, what I mentioned before would be still the main reason how can someone becomes godlike.
Not everyone in the industry 'works together' as you say. They are actually competition. They say if you want a friend in wall street, get a dog. So, everyone is out for themselves. While some groups clearly work together whether to short or be long stocks, mostly its everyone for themselves at all times and its convenient for them to pack together. But if someone spots an opportunity to take other side of the trade to bet against everyone else, you can bet they will do it.
Rentech is a holy grail of what 'quants' and 'techies' (STEM.. science technology engineering, mathematics majors) can achieve and what they aspire to becoming. The idea that you can use stat models, look a bunch of numbers and have computers crunching numbers and doing trades autonomously is really cool I know. Quants will try to use technical skills, analytical skills, and technology (like HFT) to solve a market problem to earn a profit. This is great and it works and they get pretty decent return. The reason John Arnold's case is so striking is that I don't think he runs fancy HFTs or have a bunch of quants in his hedge fund. Just a bunch of guys with a good knowledge of the industry. And it goes to show maybe you really don't need all that fancy technical stuff. Trading on human instincts and the market being stochastic really means that anyone can do it short of all the technical stuff. You really need to ask whether that technical stuff is giving you a real edge. And maybe you don't need it if all you're doing is trying to buy low and sell high. Hence, why some studies show even stocks picked at random can beat a benchmark index or some hedge fund returns. Its because at the end of the day its all random and non-deterministic anyway. I'd rather be more lucky than smart in a market.
