Yup, pool too. I see trading as a game of skill.
"... how do you define and measure PROBABILITY for short term trading..." You know, I don't think it is necessary or even relevant. The skill in trading is to know what conditions favor what outcome. Then, make a limited risk bet with [relatively] unlimited potential for profit. Those are the things a good trader does. He also recognizes there are certain conditons where he does NOT do certain things... for example, "load shorts because stochastic is overbought" as soon as the Fed announces a surprise rate cut.
I once designed a trading method which had ZERO losers over 12 years. No kidding. Problem was that it was so restrictive it was out of the market so much it underperformed by a mile. Conclusion: "Zero losses is not a viable objective".
When I was trying to talk up my work to get business, I used to keep records of wins/losses, etc. I ran 71% winners for 5 years in mutual fund trading. One September, a client called me up and said, "do you realize we haven't had a loser all year?". I said, "DAMN... kiss of death... and that has been highly unusual... don't expect to see that again". Next trade was a loser.
Many say "Don't trade too much [overtrading, they call it]". I say, BALONEY. If you trade well, you profit. Trade poorly, you lose. How often you trade is irrelevant. Trading is a skill.
