Von Greyerz: In The End The Dollar Goes To Zero & The US Defaults

[M.W.]

Inflation is not the same as currency devaluation. And just because you can't buy the same with a dollar in the future does not mean you lose buying power if your cash inflows equally inflate.

The value of the dollar has nothing whatsoever directly to do with inflation. Nothing. What values the dollar more or less relative to other currencies is its relative demand and supply over other currencies. You can have 20% inflation in the US, but if wages and wealth rise equally fast then this will hardly hit the dollar. Of course that seldomly happens.

It is irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies that do harm to a currency and that can result in stoking inflation or impact a nation's currency because it makes it relatively less desirable.

It asymptotes to zero, never reaching zero.

Eventually a single dollar becomes worth less, you cant buy anything of value with it, you then need $10, then $100. then $1000...

Not there yet, eg. you can still walk into a shop and buy items, like food, for a single dollar. But one day your descendants will walk into a shop (although probably all be online by then) and not be able to buy anything for a single dollar.

We trust in the Government and Fed to ensure the drop in buying power happens in a slow, orderly way and not a fast collapse. But the way the national debt is rising so fast, going be $100 Trillion within twenty years. It is pretty scary stuff. If they cant raise enough tax revenues they resort to money printing and the value of money collapses much faster.

 

[SoyUnGanador]

But he is absolutely right though. I don't see how the U.S. government will ever stop spending, they will never roll back their spending in any meaningful way, All they have to do is limit their spending INCREASES to less than the growth of the economy, but they will never come close to doing that.

So it won't just be inflation - it will be hyperinflation. Exponential price growth, worse and worse every year. Eventually, someone will say this is nonsense, this cannot go on, and they will default and things will then finally be addressed. But almost certainly not until then.

I think he is spot on.

 

[tiddlywinks]

We trust in the Government and Fed

It is irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies that do harm to a currency and that can result in stoking inflation or impact a nation's currency because it makes it relatively less desirable.

And desirability is directly related to demand which is directly related to confidence in, for, and of the issuing government.
When confidence completely collapses, default is the end result.

 

[nitrene]

These USD collapse articles are pretty useless since all that really matters is the reserve currency rules the globe. Any hint of crisis and global flows head to straight to the US markets.

USD has been the reserve currency pretty much since the beginning of WWII especially since the end of Breton Woods. So its been 80+ years, my guess it will end soon probably by the early 2030s. Long empires like the US usually last about 256 years so 1776+256=2032. What will replace the USD? Its probably a digital currency controlled by the country with the largest military which is likely to be China.

I would also add that confidence in all global currencies including the USD are about to collapse since the West is addicted to deficit spending ad infinitum. Hard assets and especially Precious Metals will skyrocket in the next few years.

 

[destriero]

The US would run Weimar Republic inflation before defaulting. You cannot default if you control your MS. You von Mises dudes are losers.

 

[VicBee]

I think the only place in the world where the collapse of the US economy is discussed with the same fervor as the end of the world is in the US.

It comes from a blend of social paranoia, Christian apocalyptism, bing watching series like The Walking Dead and a serious dearth of education.

 

[zghorner]

MMT is the future.

 

[zghorner]

The US would run Weimar Republic inflation before defaulting. You cannot default if you control your MS. You von Mises dudes are losers.

glad to see that the US has their multiple sclerosis under control.