Using Excel To Track EMAs

[SimpleMeLike]

Okay my take...


You can pick the market conditions before you enter, possibly code that even but....

Obviously you could set limit 5pts fixed, but you market conditions change, too many variables, very hard to code let this 1 run or okay lets exit quick for a tiny profit.

It's more about smart exits than entries imho.

Not saying my experience doesnt get it wrong ofcourse, just better over all.

Thanks Turveyd,

After discretionary trading for about 2 years, exiting is the most challenging. Watching the chart long enough, you get sense or just chart watching experience that "its time to exit this trade". So I understand what you are saying. The solution is to except this and program the strategy to choose a simple exit strategy and live with it.

Thanks

 

[Turveyd]

Thanks Turveyd,

After discretionary trading for about 2 years, exiting is the most challenging. Watching the chart long enough, you get sense or just chart watching experience that "its time to exit this trade". So I understand what you are saying. The solution is to except this and program the strategy to choose a simple exit strategy and live with it.

Thanks

Take a reduced profit, but trade full time without being there, I know.

It's a math's game, it's tricky to cover your comm's/spread and losses, without a large advantage on the exit side or a very good win ratio.

Simple method....

M1 chart
Go with the 13sma's direction firstly. ( try to avoid flat )
Scale in with 2 - 4 positions as this is auto
Then Use Envelope 0.05% and 0.08%
From the 13sma mid point to the 0.05% upper say if trend Down, scale in short positions.

Bail in the 0.08% being taken out or sooner if the 13sma changes direction on you.

Profit exit, no idea, it's profitable manually using experience to pick exits, has some BIG runs, but depends on what kinda exit you can code.

I've been toying with the idea of coding this myself, but I see no efficent codeable exit strategy

Ideas please ??

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Take a reduced profit, but trade full time without being there, I know.

It's a math's game, it's tricky to cover your comm's/spread and losses, without a large advantage on the exit side or a very good win ratio.

Simple method....

M1 chart
Go with the 13sma's direction firstly. ( try to avoid flat )
Scale in with 2 - 4 positions as this is auto
Then Use Envelope 0.05% and 0.08%
From the 13sma mid point to the 0.05% upper say if trend Down, scale in short positions.

Bail in the 0.08% being taken out or sooner if the 13sma changes direction on you.

Profit exit, no idea, it's profitable manually using experience to pick exits, has some BIG runs, but depends on what kinda exit you can code.

I've been toying with the idea of coding this myself, but I see no efficent codeable exit strategy

Ideas please ??

Thanks Turveyd,

I am curious to why the 13sma, I use ema.

For profit exit, you can keep it simple and program and back test the following below. Your experience at trailing a winner should gave you an idea of distance to trail a winner. Especially is trading a market that swings.

1. All out at X amount of ticks.
2. All in and all out at X ticks.
3. All in and trail by x amount of ticks.

You can test the code with each different exit strategy and see which one is favorable.

The same is for me as well, I can pick exit better when I am manually watching the charts, but sometimes I exit early, get impatient and so forth.

 

[Turveyd]

Thanks Turveyd,

I am curious to why the 13sma, I use ema.

For profit exit, you can keep it simple and program and back test the following below. Your experience at trailing a winner should gave you an idea of distance to trail a winner. Especially is trading a market that swings.

1. All out at X amount of ticks.
2. All in and all out at X ticks.
3. All in and trail by x amount of ticks.

You can test the code with each different exit strategy and see which one is favorable.

The same is for me as well, I can pick exit better when I am manually watching the charts, but sometimes I exit early, get impatient and so forth.

As I manually trade SMA is just smoother to my eyes it stays on trend longer so less it's turned fake outs to I guess ??

Trailing a SL doesn't work for me, market noise ends up killing everything way too soon.

X ticks, just isn't smart enough, sometimes I'm bailing for +5 others it breaks through and +20 to +40 area pretty quickly.

Quite frequently, area it's stuck on, failed to exit 10times previous to watch it slip back negative, finally I exit, and 5seconds later it plows through and runs 100pts, never going to be perfect but my educated guess is better than a fixed number or rule. ( most of the time )

I need to .....

1. Quit Business and just Trade Full time ( soon I think )
2. Program, entry and exit rules at loss rules, run when I'm here, big alarm goes off, then I hit the exit all button when I think, if only to stop me not taking setups or messing up the exit plan!

Need 1 and 2 really

* I can Code

 

[SimpleMeLike]

As I manually trade SMA is just smoother to my eyes it stays on trend longer so less it's turned fake outs to I guess ??

Trailing a SL doesn't work for me, market noise ends up killing everything way too soon.

X ticks, just isn't smart enough, sometimes I'm bailing for +5 others it breaks through and +20 to +40 area pretty quickly.

Quite frequently, area it's stuck on, failed to exit 10times previous to watch it slip back negative, finally I exit, and 5seconds later it plows through and runs 100pts, never going to be perfect but my educated guess is better than a fixed number or rule. ( most of the time )

I need to .....

1. Quit Business and just Trade Full time ( soon I think )
2. Program, entry and exit rules at loss rules, run when I'm here, big alarm goes off, then I hit the exit all button when I think, if only to stop me not taking setups or messing up the exit plan!

Need 1 and 2 really

* I can Code

I agree with you. Exit at predetermined target price based on profit made is not smart and I have calculated that this creates small profit based on my backtesting which has been limited.

This is why we have to code a trailing SL and see what works in back-testing. A manual 25 tick trailing has given me big wins. But this is forward testing.

I need to:
1. Find a platform to learn to code (still reviewing all the platforms for decision making, I like NinjaTrader so far).
2. Code and back test some simple strategies.
3. Read a few books on stratgy and testing building
4. Program my strategies ideas and test them
5. Make money.

Meanwhile still discretionary trading while work full time in office and its a major pain using cell phone to monitor trades at time.

 

[Turveyd]

Maybe take a leaf from Handle123s?

If at 5mins in, profit less than 10 take profit / set limit +1 if in loss.

If Greater than 10 then switch out to method that holds longer, like a trail to catch strong momo.

5mins and 10 will need tweaking and back testing.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Maybe take a leaf from Handle123s?

If at 5mins in, profit less than 10 take profit / set limit +1 if in loss.

If Greater than 10 then switch out to method that holds longer, like a trail to catch strong momo.

5mins and 10 will need tweaking and back testing.

Turveyd,

Good point and advice. Definitely something to test. I am sure we both have been in trades at loss and more then 5 minutes has passed and stop loss order hit. Of course after up +1 many times.

I will add this exit strategy on the momentum exit strategy to test. Especially after P/L is positive for the day.