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The record run of 14 straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth is projected to come to an end in the first-quarter. The earnings growth rate for the period currently stands at 3.8%, down from 8.7% projected on Jan. 1. See earnings preview.
Forecasts from companies about their first-quarter results are running quite "negative," said John Butters, senior research analysts at Thomson Financial.
Thomson's ratio of negative-to-positive forecasts from S&P 500 companies for the first quarter is now 3.2, well above the long-term average of 2.
"It's not time to throw in the towel on earnings...[but it's] another thing to be worried about," said John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments.
Data
Economists polled by MarketWatch expect an increase by 139,000 in March nonfarm payrolls. In February, payrolls had their weakest growth in two years.
"If the report can come in a little bit stronger than expectations...then the [stock] market can have a couple of good sessions based on that," in the following week, said Thorne at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management.
The unemployment rate is expected to move up to 4.6% from 4.5%.
Market players will look through the jobs report to check on monthly wage levels. The central bank views higher wages as a sign of rising inflation.
Forelli at Independence Investments said he "wouldn't be surprised to trade off [in stocks next week] as investors begin to worry about near term inflation due to the strength of the global economies."
Economists expect average hourly earnings in March to have moved to 0.3%, compared with a higher-than-expected rise to 0.4% in February.
The last key check on inflationary pressure came Friday from the core personal consumption price index. The core PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, rose 0.3% in February, the biggest gain since August.
ISM's manufacturing survey is expected to come in at 52%, a slip from 52.3% in February. A reading of more than 50 reflects expansion.
Economists forecast a 1.9% increase in factory orders for February. The Commerce's Department's report is due Wednesday. Demand of U.S.-made manufactured goods dropped by 5.6% in January, the largest fall since July 2000.
Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.