Trading the June 29th FOMC meeting

Quote from steveosborne:

<b>Case A.</b> We get a quarter point rate increase; stocks and bonds are relieved and go up but oil is also going up, at a rapid pace. In this case, I would short bonds. Between bonds and stocks, I prefer to short bonds because of the trend.
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The main difference <b>so far</b> between the predefined 0.25 rate hike scenario and what is currently going on is that oil is not going up by as much as I thought it would. Because of that I will stay on the sidelines and re-assess the situation next week. If both oil and bonds are higher by that time, I will probably short bonds. We'll see then.
 
Quote from Beach Man:

Going LONG B-4 the Fed announcement as what they will announce will not be expected and the market will take off like the space shuttle.
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Yep
 
Quote from steveosborne:

(...)why imagining those scenarios instead of just waiting to see what the markets have to tell us?
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From <i>The Alchemy of Finance</i> (1994 edition) by George Soros:

"When I succeed in formulating a worthwhile conjecture the results can be very rewarding(...); and even if my perceptions are flawed(...) I have a criterion that I can use to identify my mistakes: the behavior of the market." - p.305

"Events are notoriously more difficult to predict than to explain. How can one anticipate decisions that have not yet been taken? Nevertheless, one can evaluate the implications of the decisions that have already been taken." - p.350
 
we have seen the resurection of strktrader, my guess is volente will resurface soon, with one of his "the bottom is in calls" Wow the mkt rallied, but what has changed? The volume was anemic at best for a "change" day. Once earnings start getting discounted, we will come right back to where we started yesterday. Enjoy the next few days like I will (golfing in paradise)..If u need to trade, my guess is stay long through next week. Happy trading!
 
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