up reason: ECB MIGHT raise rate
DOWN reason: sovereign debt
open: short when up reason priced in, e.g. >1.40
close: buyback at first resistant, e.g. 1.397-1.398
risk/stoploss: if there are NEW UP reasons, analyze to decide hold on or take loss.
Edge: NO.actually disadvantage: when UP reason known, it is too late.
Opportunity: But it looks like a good opportunity. DOWN reason will
pull eur down, which not go away soon.
Any comments? Any risk?
DOWN reason: sovereign debt
open: short when up reason priced in, e.g. >1.40
close: buyback at first resistant, e.g. 1.397-1.398
risk/stoploss: if there are NEW UP reasons, analyze to decide hold on or take loss.
Edge: NO.actually disadvantage: when UP reason known, it is too late.
Opportunity: But it looks like a good opportunity. DOWN reason will
pull eur down, which not go away soon.
Any comments? Any risk?