I think your reading too much into this. Just look at this chart of unemployment claims, it is very telling.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
When unemployment claims are at their lowest, then suddenly there is a sudden rise. Look at what happened in the late 80s. Everyone had a job and was feeling comfortable and then there was a sudden rise in unemployment claims.
This chart is over the course of years and its not quite at the low yet. However, it does suggest we are getting to a point where there might be an unusual spike. I would start to get worried when it reaches the low it hit in 1999-2000.
Im not worried about a housing crash or a stock market crash. It only gives rise to opportunities.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
When unemployment claims are at their lowest, then suddenly there is a sudden rise. Look at what happened in the late 80s. Everyone had a job and was feeling comfortable and then there was a sudden rise in unemployment claims.
This chart is over the course of years and its not quite at the low yet. However, it does suggest we are getting to a point where there might be an unusual spike. I would start to get worried when it reaches the low it hit in 1999-2000.
Im not worried about a housing crash or a stock market crash. It only gives rise to opportunities.
Quote from Mvic:
I don't doubt that the US will see some very hard times ahead given the fiscal irresponsability of the past 6 years. The US comptroller is going around the country saying that in order for the US to meet its obligations taxes are going to have to DOUBLE. Each man woman and child's portion of the national debt is $156K, up some vast amount since 2000. Where is the driver that will allow us to grow our way out of this mess? Earnings and margins are at record levels with not a lot of upside left after a few years of significant cost reductions and lay offs. productivity growth has slowed and probably peaked. The government and many large corporations have huge unfunded health and pension liabilities that will come to bear in the next decade and US demographics will add additional pressure on the tax base.
Yes it can get very bad, but no signs of it being imminent yet.
This year looks more like a repeat of 2004 to me and at the moment everything points to a strong finish to the year. If the pattern repeats we should see signs of weakness in this bull around the end of Dec, but maybe not. For now the high probability trade is on the long side.
