Tony Oz - Setups for 10/22 (Bottom Fisher and Skyscraper)

H

Harry

I have some questions regarding today's setups - if Tony is busy trading, perhaps someone else is able to answer these questions - thanks' a lot !

Skyscraper:

AVP - the stocks seem to appear only on the screen if they are down from the open - why don't they appear when they are trading below yesterday's close - so one could trade a beginning reversal day ?

FDC - seems to be a great play in hindsight - but has anyone taken this play - I'm sure I wouldn't - the setups doesn't look so good "visually" to me (on the daily chart) and there are no reasons like BB, 50DMA or something like that which make it look better.

Would it have been very important that it seems to be an up-day at all ?


Bottom-Fisher:

After a short glance (I just came home and did not have the time to trade today) the following Setups looked nice on the daily chart (just my opinion):

CPHD, CMCSK, NYCB, APCS, ASFC - but I'm not sure which trades I would have taken - that's hard to say if you see the move of the day already in the daily chart.

MIMS also seems just to look good in hindsight.


Harry
 
Tony's busy trading - and no one has some comments :( - but I'll try again :) - just came home (at about 2pm ET) - so I could just take a short glance at today's setups.

Did anyone trade some of these stocks today - or other ones I didn't consider that good - that might be very interesting, because I'm just learning how to work with these setups ?

Trades looking "good" to me:

Bottom Fisher:
MCCC
ASF and LEA look good in hindsight - but again I'm not sure if I would have considered trading them.

Skyscraper:
GILD
HGSI
PRHC !
CERN !
SEPR !
SYK
DVA

Thanks a lot for your help !

Harry
 
Hi Harry.

Good that you want to discuss this pattern as I have decided to focus only on it for now.

Today I tried catching EQR (25.4 stop 24.87) and HAS short 17.38 stop 17.73 but my PC F***** UP again (boy I adore WinME) so I had to format it all and install Win98. Kinda stable now. :mad:

No trading today!

But in the first half of the day I was also watching QLTI, CBRL and G.... :cool: ...missed them all.

Catch you tomorrow on theese plays of yours as Im unable to do so now because my Ensign is bolloxed up too.

C ya
 
Harry,

I have to admit I haven't read Tony Oz yet. I will in the near future. By "skyscraper," I trust that he refers to those stocks that are overextended and ready to correct. Am I right? Or am I wrong? In any case, it doesn't matter for my comments below.

SYK is definitely way overextended in the short term. It's gone from 45 to 60 in about a month and from one end of the Bollinger Band to another, and it's still too far off the 20 day simple moving average. If you look at some other similar stocks in the subsector of medical supplies/equipment such as STJ and BMET, they also look overextended. Fundamentally speaking, I believe this sector remains strong, so although these stocks have high p/e's, they should still maintain their uptrends even after corrections. In any case, if you are to go short, it should only be a quick trade. If you want to go long, wait until they sufficiently correct. Use Fibonacci retracement and support and resistance to establish your targets.

Although overextended, GILD seems to have just broken out of resistance at 60. The Biotech Index, BTK, seems to have done the same with temporary support at 500, say. So if GILD pull backs a bit more and consolidates there, it might be a good idea to go long. Again, since most biotech stocks, especially the high-profiled ones like GILD and HGSI, track the BTK index, you'll have to follow the latter closely.

As for CERN, it looks to me it is yearning for a blue-sky breakout to 60. It has a nice 9-month cup-and-handle price pattern. On Balance Volume has been higher than average during the last few weeks. The stock failed to break out today mainly because I think it's overextended in the short term. However, given the momentum, it does seem to have potential to an upside breakout. If it pulled back to 55 or near the 20 day simple moving average, it should be a good entry for a long.

Just my two cents. I haven't checked the hourly charts for these stocks. If you are to swing trade, hourly charts are crucial and thorough analysis of a few is far better than superficial analysis of a whole bunch of them, needless to say.

Good luck,
stockoptionist
 
Neo,

Hi, how are you? Remember I said that DRMD was overextended and due for correction. Today, it dropped 2 points with higher than average volume. I expect some more decline in the days to come for this stock. Unfortunately, I haven't had a position in this one.

stockoptionist
 
Hey Stock!

Im fine thank you... jus a little angry cos I had to format my PC today... AGAIN! But its ok now, except that I cant install IB (some kind of java something missing) and Ensign doesnt work!

Ah, well, now that I got it out of my system Ill try to check the charts Harry suggested on Stockcharts. Itll take me like ages but whatever. Anyway, nice to hear from you and see ya'll tomorrow (1:30AM in Croatia)

Alex
 
Dear Harry,

DVA -stay away, not a good sky. SKY should be overbought short ter,, this ones oversold

SYK- looking good, cannot calculate r/r dont have my ensign, stockcharts not concise enough

SEPR- not sur about the target thus r/r ratio, I can see 3 consecutive S levels

CERN-hrm, looks like 1R play. No

PRHC-Err...no. Not a skyscraper.

HGSI - stoch near 30, RSI 50, nope. Besides, no vol

GILD-could be but would have to check r/r

ASF-WAS a great play intraday but tomorrow is too late

MCCC-looking good

ASFC-failing on 23rd

APCS-no

NYCB-no

Harry, the main thing as Tony taught me is- LOOK FOR SHORT TERM OVERSOLD AND OVERBOUGHT MOVES that are bound to correct. If youre after Skyscraper then you know that it has to be OVERBOUGHT. Therefore, a move bouncin of UPPER BB is a good place to start lookin. Better yet, piercings of upper BB, not a move that bounced from the lower one . Thats how he told me and the way I understand it.

BNut who am to say, I only made like 5 trades in my life :cool: :p :D

Good luck all!

Alex
 
1. I think it is hard to trade this setups without having a real-time screening-system. The only way I tried to do this before I subscribed, was to check charts by hand if there were 3 consecutive up- or downdays and check in realtime if they are triggered during the trading day.

DVA / PRHC
I'm very very glad to discuss these setups. They're very good examples. These are my personal thoughts (but do not take them as recommandations - although I have more than 5 trades, neo - well, about 200 :D )
I thought, that the stock is short-term (!) oversold, ie for a three-day-period - the stocks seems to be in a mid-term downtrend since August. So I thout the downmove would be a great opportunity because it would be in the direction of the mid-term trend.

Most overbought stocks you mentioned as offering good setups are in a medium-term uptrend and the skyscraper-setups may offer just a small pullback (SYK, SEPR, GILD, MCCC) - so I would only trade them intrday - I hope someone can correct my assumptions if they are incorrect !!!

CERN
Here we again have the problem that you want (have to) enter one day too late - on Thursday it had a great R/R :confused:

ASFC was a setup to be taken on monday - on tuesday I would have gotten stopped out with a trailing stop.

APCS - great volume on Friday + bounce on 50DMA - it would have been a good swingtrade if you had set the stop below Mondays low after the stock trading above Fridays close.

NYCB - bad play - stock bouncing off 20DMA but reversed again at 50DMA

I think it would be great to continue this discussion because I'm also just learning to work with these setups.

Today I traded SNPS and MHP short on signs of Nasdaq-weakness at about 10:40 - but got stopped out both times for a small loss - that makes me think that the overall market condition is more important that I thought before - isn't it :confused: :confused: :confused: ?

Harry
 
To Harry and all the members that want to share their knowledge-

Great questions Harry, I also have one about theese setups. I didnt get the chance to ask Tony as he left to trade.

BOTTOM FISHER -

does he (or should we) look ONLY for thoose down moves that pierced or bounced off lower BB and are turning up or can we take into consideration the ones that are also bouncing off the middle band for ex.?

My asumption is that we would want the price to be as low as possible as that is the indication of "oversoldness" (is that a word:D )

SKYSCRAPER-

Same question only reverse (dah). Should we watch only the moves piercing or bouncing off UPPER BB or are other situations worth looking at also?

Thanks to everyone who can help me out with this.

Alex
 
There you go Harry, my brother! :cool:
Theese are the ones I choose for today. 1s number is entry, second target and last one is stop.


HRB 33,66 37,88 32,27 LONG
GW 2,77 2,38 2,89 SHORT
CA intraday 28,10 32,31 SHORT
WFC 39,83 38,35 40,56 SHORT
N 14,19 13,25 14,48 SHORT
CLS 36,57 31,76 38,54 SHORT
MEL 34,10 32,25 34,90 SHORT
-----------------
HDI - just want to see it BF works at upper BB also
ICN - channel '
JBL - UP triangle
FE - triangle
BSX - breakout?
TTN -
STK - needs another DN day to be BF
HCA - gap DN through lower BB
EK - same
T - same
MXT - piercing lower BB
XRX - same


Just my 2c (probably worth less he he).
Alex

P.S. If anybody wants to comment more than welcome
 
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