Thoughts on using event contract to hedge or trade high impact events risks?

[destriero]

I am going to vent here, again.

https://kalshi.com/markets/cpicore/us-core-inflation#cpicore-23jul

Core CPI >0.1 Buy

So ofc I paid 52/100 for the thing. Resolved to the hundredth (confirmed) so, ostensibly, I earn from 0.11 to 0.19 (as there are range binaries above; 0.2, 0.3, etc)

OK, so any reasonable person who wasn't born yesterday would read that range-digital to payout from 0.1 to 0.19 (as there are range binaries above and below; 0.2, 0.3, etc), and they use BLS-convention or reporting to the hundredth.

No, it pays on YES above 0.16. 0.15 (mid) is the hook. I don't know it that's a push or the House wins, but no matter.

The >0.2 YES (pays above) is priced at 11/100. Assuming that it only pays from 0.21 to 0.24 as 0.25 is the hook.

Per Luana's explanation of the payout convention. I honestly don't know if the thing pays on the hook (x.x5) or it's a push.

I have contacted Eugenia V at the CFTC with the rules regarding the binary. I cannot fathom how poorly this sht is structured.

The digital rallied and I covered all at 52 for a scratch.

 

[destriero]

So WTF don't they simply offer a digital struck at consensus? 0.15. People can actually decipher the payout. Make consensus the hook and push a 0.15 figure and bets are refunded on that figure less comms.

Funding this place is an IQ test.