Bought my place a year ago - was absolutely convinced that I was paying too much and was going to get caught in a bubble and lose about 10-20%. By buying in an excellent area, I rationalized that I would at least be cushioned from a complete collapse. Needed someplace to live, tired of paying rent, and recognized mortgage rates weren't going to be this low forever, so I justified the premium.
Now, a year later, the house next door (smaller lot, poorly maintained house) was sold for a few thousand less than what I paid for mine. ----> KNOCKDOWN. They are building a 5000sf mega mansion. And the last lot in the area just went up for sale unimproved & no house for the same price that house just went for. The real estate market, is to put it mildly, brisk. But I am starting to see more homes on the market, even though prices to me seem ridiculous. I think the market has about a year left in it before it slows due to rising interest rates.
You can't fight the mass migration of people coming here. Its more than 700 a day! Estimates of 4 million more people over the next 20 years have been published, and that's probably low. Every baby boomer in NJ wants to sell the family home for 1million and buy their super sweet condo on the water for 500k and pocket the difference. As long as that is possible, expect waterfront property to remain unrealistic.
HOWEVER, eventually, economic downturn will stop the northerners from buying here and we might have a chance to get something for ourselves. While luxury beachfront condos can be created fairly quickly and at great profit to the developers, I doubt they will appreciate in value. But the people buying them to retire in probably couldn't care less - they are buying them to live there & it is so cheap in comparison! If I had my druthers, I'd rather buy a house on the beach. But good luck finding that for less than a mil.
Rental prices do not match current home prices, and there are a lot of rental communities, so until inflation catches up with stuff, you'll take a bath on your purchase if you try to rent it out at current rates.
Don't underestimate the growth of inland central florida. That's growing as fast or faster than other areas of florida.
Finally, the florida lifestyle is great. Florida is the next California. I feel sorry for the poor guys left in New York to tough out the winters while the high level of social services and declining tax revenues take even more of the little they earn.