The Pain of History

S

ShoeshineBoy

Just out of curiosity, anybody read enough or been around long enough to answer this question: how did anyone make $ from 1910 to 1950 or from 1970-1979?!? Those graphs gave me chills. Those were ugly years! For example, pre-Eisenhower the mkt was essentially flat for 40 years! I guess the past doesn't matter in some ways, but it was sobering.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm

And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!
 
"deep retchin'"

In both eras. No commoners made a lot of money in either era. Most people who had the means were buying their homes, a better investment than stocks.

"Wall Street - A History" by Geisst is a book worth reading if you have the time.


Edit: Had a chance to re-read this several times. It could be construed as condescending, but that isn't my intent. Have a good day.
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Just out of curiosity, anybody read enough or been around long enough to answer this question: how did anyone make $ from 1910 to 1950 or from 1970-1979?!? Those graphs gave me chills. Those were ugly years! For example, pre-Eisenhower the mkt was essentially flat for 40 years! I guess the past doesn't matter in some ways, but it was sobering.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm

And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!
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Jesse Livermore operated during the 1910-1950. And don't we all want the volatility of the time around the crash?
 
Who cares if the market trend is flat, even long-term, e.g., 40 years. Find a vehicle, like the QQQ, for example, that oscillates a few % a week, and learn how to be on the right side of the short-term fluctuation. NASAQ has been flat the last few months, but it hasn't prevented me from taking $ out of The Cubes just by paying attention to a few well-known statistics while keeping an ear to the ground, e.g., Greenspan's rate hike palaver. For the adventuresome, the same can be done by exploiting mass hysteria, e.g., TASR, IPIX, etc.

Volatility, baby -- that's what trading's all about. Investing in a flat market will likely get you nowhere. But informed, strategic trading can net profits even in a flat market. That's why so many people are lured by the prospect of trading their way to riches, if only they could read the signs and find the right strategy and consistently execute on that strategy. Presumably, that's why this site is called EliteTRADER, not LongTermInvesting.
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Just out of curiosity, anybody read enough or been around long enough to answer this question: how did anyone make $ from 1910 to 1950 or from 1970-1979?!? Those graphs gave me chills. Those were ugly years! For example, pre-Eisenhower the mkt was essentially flat for 40 years! I guess the past doesn't matter in some ways, but it was sobering.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm

And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!
More...

what do you mean by FLAT from 1910 to 1950? A huge ride up and a huge ride down. Long on the way up. Short on the way down.

Flat if you just buy and hold. A lot of actions if you were a trader.
People here on ET still don't get it. And they call themselves "traders". Man...
 
Quote from misctrader:

what do you mean by FLAT from 1910 to 1950? A huge ride up and a huge ride down. Long on the way up. Short on the way down.

Flat if you just buy and hold. A lot of actions if you were a trader.
People here on ET still don't get it. And they call themselves "traders". Man...
More...

I think you skipped the last thing I wrote, "And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!"
 
Somehow I gave the impression that one couldn't make money in those eras. Didn't mean to imply that.

I just was commenting that it looks like as the decades go on, the mkt climate seems to drastically change. What worked 20 years ago is highly unlikely to work 20 years later at least not w/o significant adjustments...

It made me realize that backtesting is great - you may ride the crest for XX years, but eventually you'll get hit with a market shift where you'll have re-adapt...
 
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