The bear markets of Bitcoin, a historical view

[Pekelo]

This time it is different, I know. But since there are lots of new comers who weren't around when price was falling for weeks or even months, why don't we take a step back and look at the times when Bitcoin was in bear territory:

1. This was the biggest one. The priced dropped from $30 to $2, between June 8th 2011 and Nov 18th of the same year. Imagine when you see 93% of your investment to evaporate. That is how it felt.

It took another 20 months before the price saw $30 again.

2. From $230 to $68, Apr 9-16, 2013. That is a 70% drop in a week. Priced doubled from there just to visit the low a few weeks later again. The full recovery took 7 months.

3. This was the infamous Mt.Gox bubble at the end of 2014. Price reached 4 digits for the first time thanks to Mr. Karpeles (a billionaire today) topped around 1120 in December then it took a full year and lots of zig-zags to bottom just below $200 in 2015 January. The full recovery took more than 2 years.

To see the drops use this website and change the time frames:

https://www.coindesk.com/price/

Are we ready for the next one?

 

[johnarb]

Good historical breakdown, Pekelo. Yes, we are ready for the next bear market cycle in Bitcoin. Are you ready to buy in at the bottom this time?

I'm guessing $900 is bottom but hey, it may hit $500...

 

[lovethetrade]

Bear markets of Bitcoin lol. This is just a moderate pullback and a great buy opportunity.

220 for Monero, wow, all my dreams have come true.

13000 is probably the bottom for BTC also.

How's all the people buying it at 16-18,000. Apparently they knew more than everyone.

 

[aqtrader]

In perspective of daily percentage change, none of recent days are in the top 30 days in the bitcoin's price history.

 

[aqtrader]

top 30 down days in daily percentage

 

[Pekelo]

So you have found the thread? Good...

Bear markets of Bitcoin lol.

How's all the people buying it at 16-18,000. Apparently they knew more than everyone.

If you don't like history, blame it on your parents.

There are always late comers, I bought pets.com for $80... (not really, just making a point)

Anyhow, this thread is a historical look back, not an argument about price and manias...

 

[Pekelo]

top 30 down days in daily percentage

Thanks for the data, pretty good to have. A bear market doesn't have to start with a huge % drop though, but usually vertical rallies correct violently.

Here is an interesting look into newcomers' minds, the fear, hope, confusion when their current investment is suddenly in the red:

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FBitcoin%252Fcomments%252F7ilzbl%252F

 

[toc]

I have a feeling that Bitcoin is a "Pump and Dump" type of global scheme.

The bitcoin whales: 1,000 people who own 40 percent of the market

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/mar...0-percent-of-the-market/ar-BBGsjYu?li=AAgh0dA

Bittrex, a digital currency exchange, recently wrote to its users warning that their accounts could be suspended if they banded together into “pump groups” aimed at manipulating prices. The law might also be different for other digital coins. Depending on the details of how they are structured and how investors expect to make money from them, some may count as currencies, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

[southall]

Imagine when you see 93% of your investment to evaporate. That
That is a 70% drop in a week.
Are we ready for the next one?

So based on previous 3 crashes, of between 70% and 93%, we are looking at downside target this time of somewhere between $1000 and $5000.

 

[philpsw]

Remember that bitcoin is not regulated by any government entity or private company, it is public. It can be affected by anything, both positive and negative speculations. The most advisable thing is to sell a part now that is worth a lot (around 15K dollars) and leave another part stored.