Got it... I thought your comment was more of a speculation as to where price might go first to find liquidity, and then either enough longs absorb the selling, or down we go.
The Bear is in charge
- Thread starter mikeriley
- Start date
I wrote on Tuesday how I'm cautious towards the long side and would expect the market to tank on a hot CPI print Wednesday and how we can't rule out that a correction was already in play. Further, I also know that larger days up (Thursday) are not unlikely to reverse lower the next day.
Yet, for some reason, I kept trying to pick a bottom on Friday, so it was a humbling day for me giving back a lot of gains from earlier in the week.
If this is indeed a correction, they tend to bottom out around 10 %. That takes us down to around 4750 on SPX.
My impression is that most people attributed Friday's sell off to geopolitical risks going into the weekend and that may very well have put additional sell pressure on the market, but the fact is we've been making lower highs ever since the 1st of April.
I don't expect this correction to be a smooth one as everyone is so conditioned to buying the dips now and there still seems to be a considerable bid in the market. Bears are traumatized and bulls are still confident.
Generally, V-bottoms seems common. A-tops - not so. That's easily observable by the huge amount of zig zagging from the recent highs and prior highs as well.
Yet, for some reason, I kept trying to pick a bottom on Friday, so it was a humbling day for me giving back a lot of gains from earlier in the week.
If this is indeed a correction, they tend to bottom out around 10 %. That takes us down to around 4750 on SPX.
My impression is that most people attributed Friday's sell off to geopolitical risks going into the weekend and that may very well have put additional sell pressure on the market, but the fact is we've been making lower highs ever since the 1st of April.
I don't expect this correction to be a smooth one as everyone is so conditioned to buying the dips now and there still seems to be a considerable bid in the market. Bears are traumatized and bulls are still confident.
Generally, V-bottoms seems common. A-tops - not so. That's easily observable by the huge amount of zig zagging from the recent highs and prior highs as well.
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Good caution ; and a tad early FRI for some ETFs /stock$ + such.
Good polar bear moves in SPY\todayMON\
If 50dma holdin' to close MONday on SPY/$510 area/ may move up trends again.
Well, I completely f...ed this day up. I've been getting much better at adding to winning positions lately. But even though I caught the beginning of the 10:05 AND the 12:15 moves in the NQ, I covered way too early on both trades, and I missed the 1:15 move completely.
Tom Hougard's book says "If it's uncomfortable, it's probably the right thing to do".
I did great if you just look at my P/L, but I seriously pussed out and left tons on the table by doing what was comfortable in the heat of the moment.
Still some work to do when it comes to index futures trading. Stock mean reversion trading is a breeze compared to this.
Tom Hougard's book says "If it's uncomfortable, it's probably the right thing to do".
I did great if you just look at my P/L, but I seriously pussed out and left tons on the table by doing what was comfortable in the heat of the moment.
Still some work to do when it comes to index futures trading. Stock mean reversion trading is a breeze compared to this.
GOOD points , good %
\ but i NEVER depend on another traders-inVestors chart$ LOL.
Even more so if they are trading stuff i dont;
Dow is correlated to itself+ was up in premarket
But Dow is closer to SPY than qqq
Congratulations. If you made money, you most certainly didn't F up even if you left a lot on the table. Don't quite agree with that Hougaard quote, though. Trading, done right, should be comfortable. Or at least as comfortable as it gets risking money (and unrealized profits).
Curious on your comment related to stocks. If that's a breeze - why even trade index futures?
I've asked that questions to others (stocks versus index futures) and I'm getting different answers, so genuinely curious.
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ACTUAUALLY i dont mind so much losing, as long as its in line with major + medium trend; BUT with SIF, can get $lammed much easier than planned /as with any leveraged ETF or get slammed even, with best single stocks.
{ I seldom pay much attention to wars outside US\war, may buy with blood in streets, so can NOT say i ignore it completely.}
MOST likely bear profits on anything are a bit more nervous \ that's the way its always been with me. Yes mostly comfortable trades -invests with main or medium trend;
but todays not the best example\ but short or inverse profit tend to be much more fragile.LOL.
Dont really find much use for broad brushes like be comfy or nerVous all the time.LOL
SIF or most margin trade can get a maintance margin or margin call in some cases with out notice. Single stocks are almost as bad with % swings , can be Ok if catch them right.
WITH 20-20 hindsight FRI+ SAT post was ok for longs /50dma /SPY.........+ SPXU + such.