Study: the Treasury yield curve continues to flatten. A bullish sign for the stock market

[Troy Bombardia]

Everyone seems to be talking about the flattening yield curve nowadays. But here's the point - the yield curve isn't bearish for stocks until it inverts, which it hasn't so far.

Based on where the yield curve is right now, the stock market's future returns for the next 1 year are bullish.

https://bullmarkets.co/study-yield-curve/

 

[treeman]

I'd contend that the long dated bonds are not an accurate measure for the health of the economy (in the yield curve calc), as companies don't borrow at the 30yr rate (sign me up!). I'd look at a better proxy for how companies borrow - high yield. Once that inverts w/ the 2 yr treasury, that's the watch out.