Study: RUT vs. Dow: stock market today is just like 1999?

Troy Bombardia · Oct 2, 2018

Yesterday, the Dow went up a lot (>0.7%) while the Russell 2000 went down a lot (more than -1.3%).

Historically, this only happened in the year before a bear market began (1989 and 1999)

https://bullmarkets.co/stock-market-like-1999/

maxinger · Oct 2, 2018

One thing good about day trading is that we don't need to analyse past few years data.
If you look at my trade journal, I only analyse past 1 day data.

Also we don't care if it is bull or bear or half bull half bear market.
We simply take continuation up, continuation down signals,
& reversal up, reversal down signals.

well. for those who do position trading, then they'd better analyse past few years data.

clacy · Oct 2, 2018

Troy Bombardia said:
Yesterday, the Dow went up a lot (>0.7%) while the Russell 2000 went down a lot (more than -1.3%).

Historically, this only happened in the year before a bear market began (1989 and 1999)

https://bullmarkets.co/stock-market-like-1999/

I would say it's more of a function of the NAFTA announcement

S2007S · Oct 2, 2018

Noticing the weakness in the Russell...also financials and bio.....small caps have to keep their A game or else the rest of the market is going with it!!

Specterx · Oct 2, 2018

Divergences like this tell you that we are in the late stages of the bull market, but everybody already knows that. It's useless for timing and definitely so with a sample size of 1.

My sense is this bull has at least one or two more years to go, but that's just a guess.

eurusdzn · Oct 2, 2018

Sometimes I do that too.
Two points of minutia , seperated by decades , across vast chasms of data...
Draw a straight line connecting the two points and assign understanding or significance to this
noise.

southall · Oct 2, 2018

clacy said:
I would say it's more of a function of the NAFTA announcement

In a really strong bull market all bearish news would be shrugged off and even the Russell would be making new all time highs like the DOW.

Specterx said:
My sense is this bull has at least one or two more years to go, but that's just a guess.

My guess is the middle of next year, which if it happens is going to be really bad timing for the UK quitting the EU. Should have left this year when everything was still booming.

maxinger · Oct 3, 2018

Over the past 1 decade, there were many cases where Dow was up and Rut was down.
Why recession failed to start during those instances ?!??!

southall · Oct 3, 2018

maxinger said:
Over the past 1 decade, there were many cases where Dow was up and Rut was down.
Why recession failed to start during those instances ?!??!

The accuracy of top patterns apparently goes up the more a market is over extended at least timewise. But still nothing is ever 100% accurate.

"Once a price move exceeds its median historical age, any method you use to analyze the market, whether it be fundamental or technical, is likely to be far more accurate" -- Trader Vic