SPY/GLD/TLT optimized portfolio balance

Did anyone check out the IOFIX mutual fund (performance slightly better than IOFAX share class below)?

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If it's as consistent a return as it looks couldn't I just short BIL (0.7% fee rate and about 1.5% yield currently) and invest most of the proceeds into this to earn the 10-11% rate? The fund has a sharpe ratio of over 3.0 (!)
 
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I have run backtests similar to yours going back from 1926 to 2017 on US data, as well as UK data going back a century plus Greece and Brazil data for tail event testing. What I discovered is that 'balance' is achieved by building a Taleb like 'barbell portfolio'. You have arrived at the same conclusion, you are just not seeing it. A 20% stock 20% gold and 60% bond portfolio is a taleb barbell, bonds 'mixed' with gold are a very stable store of value while stocks are a high return high drawdown asset. At that 80/20 balance (80% bonds/gold balanced at a 3-1 or 4-1 ratio) with 20% stocks tend to achieve higher risk adjusted returns than other portfolios. Although I my own testing I recalled achieving better performance (measured by Sortino, Gain to Pain and other metrics) with higher stock allocations.

As far as leverage is concerned, its a tricky thing because it carries massive tail risks. In a Greek scenario a 2-1 leverage leads to a blow up quite fast (stocks went down 95%+ and bonds -70%, 20% gold was not enough to save the day), Brazil also had periods like that. But one could say 'The US is not like those countries, its safe to lever up here' (that is what Ray Dalio thinks and what he does in his All-Weather hedge fund), maybe, or maybe not. Even in the UK in the 70's the drawdowns that a highly levered portfolio would have that were huge (bonds and stocks collapsed massively, the pound also went down huge).
In my view, if you want to lever up like that consider doing the following
-Using a GLOBAL portfolio instead of a US centric one. So global stocks, global bonds and gold
-Limit leverage to 1.3/1.4, both to cut down tail risks and for sanity purposes. higher leverage ONLY make sense AFTER markets are down massively (2009), after a decade of a bull market it aint the time to be thinking of levering up assets
-Use whatever instrument minimize taxes and transaction costs, whether its futures/options/margin debt it will depend on your specific situation
Excellent comments.

I have a couple of questions for you sir:

1. In your backtest for the 20% stock, what indices did you use?

2. Taleb used the 20% for options instead, specifically hunting for tail events. Did you backtest that? Many economists and traders thought Taleb's method, buying tails won't work too well.
 
Excellent comments.

I have a couple of questions for you sir:

1. In your backtest for the 20% stock, what indices did you use?

2. Taleb used the 20% for options instead, specifically hunting for tail events. Did you backtest that? Many economists and traders thought Taleb's method, buying tails won't work too well.

Problem with tail events are that you never get enough of them to make a statistically significant backtest. So you probably have to make some assumptions, if buying tails help sleep better at night or it complements the portfolio, we should include it
 
Excellent comments.

I have a couple of questions for you sir:

1. In your backtest for the 20% stock, what indices did you use?

2. Taleb used the 20% for options instead, specifically hunting for tail events. Did you backtest that? Many economists and traders thought Taleb's method, buying tails won't work too well.
1. I used the S&P Composite Index from the Robert Shiller website
2. I dont think there is any way to backtest that for long periods since options started in the 70's. But when talking about the barbell he specifically mentioned startups. So my barbell is not exactly like his but its similar in spirit. Read his barbell paper for more information
 
Problem with tail events are that you never get enough of them to make a statistically significant backtest. So you probably have to make some assumptions, if buying tails help sleep better at night or it complements the portfolio, we should include it
1. I used the S&P Composite Index from the Robert Shiller website
2. I dont think there is any way to backtest that for long periods since options started in the 70's. But when talking about the barbell he specifically mentioned startups. So my barbell is not exactly like his but its similar in spirit. Read his barbell paper for more information
I appreciate what you both said. Very good food for thought for me.
 
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