True...I like most of what you said. Except, I think one reason for the SPX rally is the weak dollar and international arbitrage between companies in Europe and the US. That is, as the dollar falls, Verizon looks cheap versus Vodafone. Plotting the graph of the SPX in EUR shows a gap down actually...
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Soft Landing Wed?
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
True...I like most of what you said. Except, I think one reason for the SPX rally is the weak dollar and international arbitrage between companies in Europe and the US. That is, as the dollar falls, Verizon looks cheap versus Vodafone. Plotting the graph of the SPX in EUR shows a gap down actually...
That is, as the dollar falls, Verizon looks cheap versus Vodafone
I know Vodophone has been in the dumps but is the weak dollar the reason? By your analogy all US stocks would be way up and all Europe stocks would be way down. But of course most of their markets have been blowing us away all year....
Certain things are for sure. Travel Europeans are travelling here and single handedly supporting retail right now. Also buying foreign stocks in their own currency makes a lot of sense for US investors- if the US dollar is going to go down 10% a year.
I know Vodophone has been in the dumps but is the weak dollar the reason? By your analogy all US stocks would be way up and all Europe stocks would be way down. But of course most of their markets have been blowing us away all year....
Certain things are for sure. Travel Europeans are travelling here and single handedly supporting retail right now. Also buying foreign stocks in their own currency makes a lot of sense for US investors- if the US dollar is going to go down 10% a year.
Felt like program trades to me today folks. I expect a large S&P sell program will go off tomorrow early on. Considering we know the jobs number is supposed to be north of 100,000, I would expect a quiet if not up Friday- that would give us a nice 2 day trade in a volatile name should the opportunity present itself tomorrow afternoon.
~stoney
~stoney
Hrm. I have to admit that for the last few days, I've been less optimistic about the market than I had been. My own sentiment tends to mirror the market's rather than 'everyone' else's, whom I usually disagree with in general.
I expected a slightly up close, but it was a slightly down close today. Now my confidence in myself is slightly shaken, not because the market closes down sometimes, which is normal in a bull market, but because I was wrong.
I don't think the $$ is exhausted yet. I think we're seeing more sector rotation earlier, and there's still room on the upside overall, but we have to be more careful about the picks. Monkey darts won't do it anymore.
Maybe it is time to pull out some cash, you cannot lose what you don't have in the game.
I expected a slightly up close, but it was a slightly down close today. Now my confidence in myself is slightly shaken, not because the market closes down sometimes, which is normal in a bull market, but because I was wrong.
I don't think the $$ is exhausted yet. I think we're seeing more sector rotation earlier, and there's still room on the upside overall, but we have to be more careful about the picks. Monkey darts won't do it anymore.
Maybe it is time to pull out some cash, you cannot lose what you don't have in the game.
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Felt like program trades to me today folks. I expect a large S&P sell program will go off tomorrow early on. Considering we know the jobs number is supposed to be north of 100,000, I would expect a quiet if not up Friday- that would give us a nice 2 day trade in a volatile name should the opportunity present itself tomorrow afternoon.
~stoney
Seems whatever the job numbers are they will spin it into something positive like they have been doing for quite sometime. If there are more than 175k they will continue to mention the word soft landing. If there are 75k they will make an excuse that the federal reserve will have to cut rates by early 2007.
Good new is great news. Bad news, well there is no such thing as bad news in a bull market!!!
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Well the 1995 move was based off The Internet- probably the most transforming tech app of all time, there's nothing happening like that now.
Exactly right. Nothing of the sort is happening at the moment. The Internet was just one ultimate catalyst for the market back in the late 1990's...
Well it's off to the gym towing a three year old with a temper and a runny nose- no easy task. The Dow is up 22. HOW FAR DOWN WILL IT BE WHEN I GET BACK?
~stoney
~stoney
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Well it's off to the gym towing a three year old with a temper and a runny nose- no easy task. The Dow is up 22. HOW FAR DOWN WILL IT BE WHEN I GET BACK?
~stoney
Dow is down 2 right now. Finally, some selloff, although CNBC is still talking about bulls charging ahead. Perhaps their quote is delayed?
Well as predicted now after the S&P successfully defended 1400 it's time to rally! At least through 11:00 tomorrow! The only problem is I'm not sold on any particular stock at the moment. Been kicking the tires at Sangamo SGMO... might go there.
Well folks job day is finally here. And what a let down.
Mr. Market is looking soooo tired. Stocks gapped higher on yesterday's open, but traders immediately sold into strength stocks to break down to new intraday lows. The Nasdaq Composite led the way lower with a 0.7% loss. The S&P 500 and S&P Midcap 400 indices both fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined by 0.5%. Each of the major indices closed near their worst levels of the day. Total volume in the NYSE declined by 6%, but volume in the Nasdaq was 8% higher than the previous day's level. The mixed turnover readings caused the Nasdaq to register a bearish "distribution day," its third within the past four weeks. The S&P, however, not only showed more relative strength during the session, but also declined on lighter volume. Yesterday's Nasdaq volume was the highest it has been since November 15. This tells us that institutions may be returning to the markets, but on the sell side.... indexes should at least test support of its "swing low" that was formed on December 1 at some point. If the December 1 low fails to hold, QQQQ will have formed its first "lower high" and "lower low," indicating a short to intermediate-term trend reversal. Until then it's still look long time!
Thursday's action looked tired. Can Friday push ahead. stonedinvestor says YES!
Mr. Market is looking soooo tired. Stocks gapped higher on yesterday's open, but traders immediately sold into strength stocks to break down to new intraday lows. The Nasdaq Composite led the way lower with a 0.7% loss. The S&P 500 and S&P Midcap 400 indices both fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined by 0.5%. Each of the major indices closed near their worst levels of the day. Total volume in the NYSE declined by 6%, but volume in the Nasdaq was 8% higher than the previous day's level. The mixed turnover readings caused the Nasdaq to register a bearish "distribution day," its third within the past four weeks. The S&P, however, not only showed more relative strength during the session, but also declined on lighter volume. Yesterday's Nasdaq volume was the highest it has been since November 15. This tells us that institutions may be returning to the markets, but on the sell side.... indexes should at least test support of its "swing low" that was formed on December 1 at some point. If the December 1 low fails to hold, QQQQ will have formed its first "lower high" and "lower low," indicating a short to intermediate-term trend reversal. Until then it's still look long time!
Thursday's action looked tired. Can Friday push ahead. stonedinvestor says YES!