Quote from 2manywhiners:
Thanks for the support. I've been wanting to start a thread like it for a while now, I just kept putting it off.
As far as not using technicals goes, I just don't like using lagging indicators to make buying and selling decisions for intra-day trading. Swing positions and investments are different, but to me, making decisions based solely on old data is simply not efficient enough. Most of what I do in the morning is about finding breakouts, and those stocks tend to do things that most technical analysis can't explain. News, changes in fundamentals, or sector related occurrences often help to explain highly volatile swings. There is nothing wrong with trading purely based on technicals, I'm just not very successful at it.
How do I know what the market is telling me? Good question. First, the indices help show market direction. When multiple indices are trading in unison that is a good indicator of what individual stocks are likely to do, but checking an individual stock's related sector is still important too. News and an assortment of other variables come into play as well. Mostly like I try to explain in my posts regarding "forming a matrix" around trades.
How do I analyze volume? Well, if you're referring to the volume numbers on a Level II screen, I look at how much liquidity there is at the time the stock is on my screen and what it has been doing so far for the day. High volume (above its average daily volume) early in the trading day with little resistance almost always points to some kind of corresponding news, like merger rumors, earnings reports, pre-earnings hints, new technologies being unveiled by XYZ, CEO leaving the company, SEC investigations, etc, etc. Volume by itself says little, but it does help to point you in the direction you should be looking.
Price and Volume? Are usually the only technical indicators I look at. I've posted on the subject numerous times, I'm pretty sure I put a few in this thread too. Basically, KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) really helps to cut down on confusion, and a bit of research into candle and volume patterns will do wonders for your trading, even if you use MAs or Bollingers etc.
Where does my edge come from? Two words. RISK. MANAGEMENT. I've posted numerous things on this subject before. Tomorrow I'll check what I've already posted in this thread and maybe I'll try to dig up some more. Basically risk management is the name of the game. I'd be willing to bet that with proper risk management, even a monkey could net positive returns (see Jim Cramer). I never double down either. Sure It'll work every time, and I'm not being sarcastic here, It really will work every single time, right up until the time where you blow an entire account (see Numerous Funds that doubled down on Enron and the like). Buy low, sell high is for adventure seekers. Trying to buy the bottoms and selling at the very tip of tops can kill an account when you're wrong. You can be right, and still lose money. Buying too early, or selling too early will drive a man crazy. Conversely, waiting too long and buying tops or selling bottoms is equally bad. Using market orders is not the end of the world. Using stops for a beginner is a must (I still use them). Trading is a numbers game (I know I've said that before) getting the numbers right and understanding exactly why you're in a trade, why it is you're buying, and why it is you're selling is key.
I have a philosophy. "I trade what moves best, and what moves best is always changing." Basically, don't be afraid to branch out. I know a lot of beginner books tell you to specialize, but trust me, no stock regularly has significant volatility and easily predictable moves. I screen stocks before (most) every trade. A lot of the time I'm trading stocks I'm not readily familiar with, and sometimes stocks I've never heard of. Just remember to do your homework, and the faster you get at research (with breakouts anyway) the better.
Good luck. Keep 'em coming.