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Shoot the Bull - Currencies
- Thread starter usdBull
- Start date
20:53 AUD/USD: Some Factors to Weigh on The AUD] San Francisco, August 23. The
AUD/USD has continued to hold near 0.7625/30 through the afternoon despite some
factors emerging that could weigh on the currency. The sharp sell-off in the MXN
today is a risk since emerging market currency pressure sometimes increases risk
aversion, a factor that would pressure AUD/CHF. The losses on US stocks today
also add to risk aversion. Copper prices were lower today since the decline in
US home sales are seen weighing on demand for copper for wiring for the housing
market for both new homes and renovations. The LMEX base metal index closed
lower by 23 pts at 3684.7 today and gold also closed lower by $1.
Finally, the focus on carry trades as the Bank of Korea cracks down on JPY-
denominated loans is weighing on AUD/JPY which has seen little bounce since the
fall to 88.70/75 this session. The AUD market remains long after model funds
were seen buying this morning and a steeper pullback is seen possible with
support still eyed at 0.7560.
AUD/USD has continued to hold near 0.7625/30 through the afternoon despite some
factors emerging that could weigh on the currency. The sharp sell-off in the MXN
today is a risk since emerging market currency pressure sometimes increases risk
aversion, a factor that would pressure AUD/CHF. The losses on US stocks today
also add to risk aversion. Copper prices were lower today since the decline in
US home sales are seen weighing on demand for copper for wiring for the housing
market for both new homes and renovations. The LMEX base metal index closed
lower by 23 pts at 3684.7 today and gold also closed lower by $1.
Finally, the focus on carry trades as the Bank of Korea cracks down on JPY-
denominated loans is weighing on AUD/JPY which has seen little bounce since the
fall to 88.70/75 this session. The AUD market remains long after model funds
were seen buying this morning and a steeper pullback is seen possible with
support still eyed at 0.7560.
19:48 GMT August 23rd] EUR/USD opened up this morning at 1.2820 after a failed
rally pre-NY opening that stalled at 1.2833, a brief test of earlier lows at
1.2785 was rebuffed by smaller European central bank purchases, and when soft US
existing home sales data was released the pair shot up to the day"s high 1.2850
- where it ran into a brick wall. Chicago futures funds and CTAs participated
strongly in the post-data EUR surge, only to find they had more appetite than
their inter-bank brethren, and quickly they dumped out on no follow through.
The stop and reverse caught most day traders flat-footed and Chicago dumped out
all they had bought and a little more. The low of the day was at 1.2777, right
on a support point on the Sep IMM contract at 1.2790, and central bank purchases
around 1.2785 brought the pair up to close at 1.2795. Weak Belgium Business
Confidence numbers on top of yesterday"s weak German ZEW has Euro bulls worried
about tomorrow"s IFO report. Today"s weak US numbers have affirmed Fed pause,
although Durable Goods and New Home Sales give us another look tomorrow.
rally pre-NY opening that stalled at 1.2833, a brief test of earlier lows at
1.2785 was rebuffed by smaller European central bank purchases, and when soft US
existing home sales data was released the pair shot up to the day"s high 1.2850
- where it ran into a brick wall. Chicago futures funds and CTAs participated
strongly in the post-data EUR surge, only to find they had more appetite than
their inter-bank brethren, and quickly they dumped out on no follow through.
The stop and reverse caught most day traders flat-footed and Chicago dumped out
all they had bought and a little more. The low of the day was at 1.2777, right
on a support point on the Sep IMM contract at 1.2790, and central bank purchases
around 1.2785 brought the pair up to close at 1.2795. Weak Belgium Business
Confidence numbers on top of yesterday"s weak German ZEW has Euro bulls worried
about tomorrow"s IFO report. Today"s weak US numbers have affirmed Fed pause,
although Durable Goods and New Home Sales give us another look tomorrow.
This one is somewhat interesting..
[17:34 EUR/USD: Traders Apprehensively Eyeing Support Above Stops] New York
August 23. Leveraged account and momentum account stops located just below the
market at 1.2770 has spot traders a little apprehensive this afternoon, as
liquidity starved, summer vacation staffed markets tries to handle transactional
flow. The key support level on the daily chart is actually at 1.2772 on the
daily spot chart - having recently sharpened my pencil to get an exact fixing.
On the IMM Sep contract it resides at 1.2791 - which corresponds to a 1.2778 -
which goes a way to explaining why we have bounced off those levels on the
intra-day spot chart. At the moment everybody is whistling past the graveyard
pretending they are not aware of the stops - because quite frankly the fills are
not going to be "tip top" if it breaks - slippage will be an issue.
Interbank is just hoping and praying that the overseas central bank bids are
still supporting this market - and certainly the guys who own the EUR options,
and paid handsomely for the premiums don"t really want it to break - although
selling the physical with topside cover is one way to make the money back. IMM
volumes are approaching 500 mln, and as roughly 240 mln were executed pre-
collapse, it looks like all that Chicago has done is erased today"s fruitless
folly. So they are not liquidating contracts in earnest - hope for the Euro
bulls yet.
Tomorrow"s strikes rolling off at the 10.00 AM NY cut are located at 1.2875,
1.2900, and 1.2920 - so all overhead strikes that the sellers of the calls will
want to defend. German IFO out tomorrow looking likely to confirm yesterday"s
poor ZEW, will be followed by US Durable goods, and New Home Sales - Durables
Ex-transport expected to be up 1.0%, and new home sales expected to be off 2.7%
by the market. Today"s close could be interesting if any antsy longs want to
step to the sidelines.
[17:34 EUR/USD: Traders Apprehensively Eyeing Support Above Stops] New York
August 23. Leveraged account and momentum account stops located just below the
market at 1.2770 has spot traders a little apprehensive this afternoon, as
liquidity starved, summer vacation staffed markets tries to handle transactional
flow. The key support level on the daily chart is actually at 1.2772 on the
daily spot chart - having recently sharpened my pencil to get an exact fixing.
On the IMM Sep contract it resides at 1.2791 - which corresponds to a 1.2778 -
which goes a way to explaining why we have bounced off those levels on the
intra-day spot chart. At the moment everybody is whistling past the graveyard
pretending they are not aware of the stops - because quite frankly the fills are
not going to be "tip top" if it breaks - slippage will be an issue.
Interbank is just hoping and praying that the overseas central bank bids are
still supporting this market - and certainly the guys who own the EUR options,
and paid handsomely for the premiums don"t really want it to break - although
selling the physical with topside cover is one way to make the money back. IMM
volumes are approaching 500 mln, and as roughly 240 mln were executed pre-
collapse, it looks like all that Chicago has done is erased today"s fruitless
folly. So they are not liquidating contracts in earnest - hope for the Euro
bulls yet.
Tomorrow"s strikes rolling off at the 10.00 AM NY cut are located at 1.2875,
1.2900, and 1.2920 - so all overhead strikes that the sellers of the calls will
want to defend. German IFO out tomorrow looking likely to confirm yesterday"s
poor ZEW, will be followed by US Durable goods, and New Home Sales - Durables
Ex-transport expected to be up 1.0%, and new home sales expected to be off 2.7%
by the market. Today"s close could be interesting if any antsy longs want to
step to the sidelines.
Oh no....my USDJPY trade might be jinxed.
Dollar May Advance to Six-Month High, Citigroup Charts Indicate
By Ron Harui
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may complete the first monthly advance against the yen in August since 1997, said analysts who study charts that predict price movements at Citigroup Inc., the world's third-largest currency trader.
The U.S. currency may rise to a six-month high versus the yen, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in New York, confirming a research report he and technical analyst John Noyce wrote on Aug. 22.
``A close above the 116.43-116.75 resistance would suggest the potential for at least 119.40,'' Fitzpatrick said in an e- mail to Bloomberg News yesterday.
The dollar traded at 116.47 yen as of 10:10 a.m. in Tokyo from 116.42 late in New York yesterday. It has risen 1.6 percent against the yen this month. The U.S. currency has fallen every August for the past eight years, by an average of 2.59 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The 116.43 yen level is where a so-called triangle pattern's upper trend-line, connecting highs from July 19, Aug. 14 and Aug. 15, extends to today, Fitzpatrick said. The Aug. 14 high was 116.75 yen.
``There is even an outside chance that a late 2001-type scenario could be building, which could see a sharp rally in the dollar into the mid-120s,'' he said.
The dollar rose 14 percent to a three-year high of 132.08 yen in December 2001 from 115.83 yen in September.
A triangle pattern forms when an exchange rate makes a series of lower peaks and higher troughs. When the rate rises above the upper line, it may be a signal for additional gains.
So-called resistance levels identify a price or value that a security, commodity or index probably won't exceed, based on recent trading patterns. A break above the level typically signals the security will move to new highs.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Dollar May Advance to Six-Month High, Citigroup Charts Indicate
By Ron Harui
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may complete the first monthly advance against the yen in August since 1997, said analysts who study charts that predict price movements at Citigroup Inc., the world's third-largest currency trader.
The U.S. currency may rise to a six-month high versus the yen, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in New York, confirming a research report he and technical analyst John Noyce wrote on Aug. 22.
``A close above the 116.43-116.75 resistance would suggest the potential for at least 119.40,'' Fitzpatrick said in an e- mail to Bloomberg News yesterday.
The dollar traded at 116.47 yen as of 10:10 a.m. in Tokyo from 116.42 late in New York yesterday. It has risen 1.6 percent against the yen this month. The U.S. currency has fallen every August for the past eight years, by an average of 2.59 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The 116.43 yen level is where a so-called triangle pattern's upper trend-line, connecting highs from July 19, Aug. 14 and Aug. 15, extends to today, Fitzpatrick said. The Aug. 14 high was 116.75 yen.
``There is even an outside chance that a late 2001-type scenario could be building, which could see a sharp rally in the dollar into the mid-120s,'' he said.
The dollar rose 14 percent to a three-year high of 132.08 yen in December 2001 from 115.83 yen in September.
A triangle pattern forms when an exchange rate makes a series of lower peaks and higher troughs. When the rate rises above the upper line, it may be a signal for additional gains.
So-called resistance levels identify a price or value that a security, commodity or index probably won't exceed, based on recent trading patterns. A break above the level typically signals the security will move to new highs.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Yen typically rallies quite strong from second week of Sep into mid-Oct during lead up to mid-year financial close for Japanese corporates.
Count me long Yen once we enter Sep. Until things change, that is.
Count me long Yen once we enter Sep. Until things change, that is.