S&p 5500....a drop of 25% would feel like a depression, however............

[PPC]

Hedging a long only only works if you are going to monetize your hedge by buying more on a dip. otherwise it’s just a drag on your returns.

Index funds are inherently momentum driven - buying more as the stock goes up; reacting to the market rather than predicting the market; and other hackneyed elitetrader phrases.

It’s not about predicting at all, it’s about managing uncertainty, that’s why risk management is critical.

Of course, even simple protection like buying a protective Put or swapping a long stock for a Call is going to be a drag on the performance, just like a safety harness and a roll cage in a racing car will be a drag on its performance.

It comes down to what one values more. It’s up to each individual to fine tune their own risk appetite in the markets.

 

[S2007S]

What is the macro event to create a 25% pullback? The worst presidential debate in history didn't even flinch this market. I think only higher rates would tank this market.

What's the macro event to create a 20 to 25% surge the next 6 months??

 

[murray t turtle]

.....many newer traders have been rewarded by the market going up and up and up and making money without knowing .....All she knew was that historically the market “always” goes up, and that all one needs to do is to hold on to the stocks and not be afraid of the “wiggles”, and that her growing account was a proof of how good she was. ..Personally, I’m scared to hold any long (equity) position overnight at these extended levels, and so it’s purely [QUOTE, partial]
%%
ONE lady said ''I'm expecting a crash like 2008 + that's why I am not in the stock market''
I told her IF I did not know the difference in a\ bear market/+ crash+
bull market, I may not be in the market also LOL.[Some people dont study trends much ]
Stock Traders Almanac notes markets go up p about 75%\down about 25% of time.
2 ] A female or male trader may not want to define in public, '' market wiggles'', LOL so that would not be an auto error, my opinion LOL.}
777] ALSO have to factor in ones personality, I like hunting, target shooting ,never minded cattle pastures.
888] One lady asked T Boone Pickens ''OH WHAT is that smell ?? '' ,LOL, T Boone Pickens said @ his cattle pasture o r cattle feedlot ''LADY that is the smell of money '' LOL
Good post PPC.

 

[Overnight]

What's the macro event to create a 20 to 25% surge the next 6 months??

It would be nVidia announcing the POTUS chip, an AI so powerful we wouldn't need either of those two codgers in the White House.

Chippy for prez 2024!

 

[S2007S]

The s&p is only down around 5% from its highs and you can already feel the hysteria and craziness....trillions wiped off global markets in literally hours, this is exactly what I spoke about when I said how a simple correction in the markets would cause this depression like state. Again the s&p is still above 5000, a drop of another 500 points would be just a 10% move lower and that alone would cause panic, even though markets are still at historic highs.

 

[S2007S]

What is the macro event to create a 25% pullback? The worst presidential debate in history didn't even flinch this market. I think only higher rates would tank this market.

Down 5% on no macro event!!

20% more to go and that still only puts the s s&p above 4000, which is October 2023 lows ..imagine a 25% drop that.only brings the s&p down to October 2023 low! That's how rapidly and forcefully these markets jumped in only 9 months! And the reason for that jump was becsuse of the fed pivot and idea that there were going to be rate cuts in 2024!!!!