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S&P 500 - You make the call
- Thread starter NoProblem
- Start date
sell 1400 but if it breaks through and becomes support you must be willing to buy it. This chart is crystal clear
I do not think so. 200 Ema and R2 are too tight above140. If you look in past on situations when the 200 EMA was on top you will see that it usually needs more /many/ attempts break this resistence. More exactly not break above it but keep there. Chart situation is very similar to 30th April 2001 for example.
With another words I strongly believe that we will break 1400 up to end of April but I think that we will be not able use it like support - we will be sliding down. Too much unsolved problems you have there in financials.
With another words I strongly believe that we will break 1400 up to end of April but I think that we will be not able use it like support - we will be sliding down. Too much unsolved problems you have there in financials.
Quote from Pholeuon:
I do not think so. 200 Ema and R2 are too tight above140. If you look in past on situations when the 200 EMA was on top you will see that it usually needs more /many/ attempts break this resistence. More exactly not break above it but keep there. Chart situation is very similar to 30th April 2001 for example.
With another words I strongly believe that we will break 1400 up to end of April but I think that we will be not able use it like support - we will be sliding down. Too much unsolved problems you have there in financials.
Thanks Pholeuon! Are you thinking that perhaps long term uptrend may be new support if we break to the upside? - seems reasonable to me!
1. We have bear market. After my opinion bear market is when 200 day EMA is on top. So it started 23January.
Look how rarely it happened in past, this is sign that in fact are long term problems.
Why do you think that it is resitance on 1400? on 27th February stopped us the 50 day Ema, on 7th April 100 day EMA - but these are wayyyyyyyy less significant resistances like 200 day Ema in bear market. If you study past what happens in bull market when prices are falling bellow 200 Ema nad in bear markets when are rising above 200 Ema you will see that it needs more attempts not only go through, but what is more important not fall back. We just broke the 100 Ema last day. I believe we can keep here because we are not that overbought and there is PPT. But 200 Ema has magical power - it is strong restistance but it will be good support just when all other EMAs will go above of it - and this will need weeks if not months.
Look how rarely it happened in past, this is sign that in fact are long term problems.
Why do you think that it is resitance on 1400? on 27th February stopped us the 50 day Ema, on 7th April 100 day EMA - but these are wayyyyyyyy less significant resistances like 200 day Ema in bear market. If you study past what happens in bull market when prices are falling bellow 200 Ema nad in bear markets when are rising above 200 Ema you will see that it needs more attempts not only go through, but what is more important not fall back. We just broke the 100 Ema last day. I believe we can keep here because we are not that overbought and there is PPT. But 200 Ema has magical power - it is strong restistance but it will be good support just when all other EMAs will go above of it - and this will need weeks if not months.
We have one another problem - if we look monthly than 20 months Ema is what stopped us on Friday - this situation is unusual because except past months we were bellow 20 months Ema last times in May 2003.
Btw, look what stopped falling market in October 2002 and March 2003 - it was 200 months Ema - the last defence line before catastrophe. They both times jumped right up from it - first try and retest as well.
Btw, look what stopped falling market in October 2002 and March 2003 - it was 200 months Ema - the last defence line before catastrophe. They both times jumped right up from it - first try and retest as well.
unless some major news comes out it will not break 1400 on first try. So expect sideway action / multiple retries to break 1400.
But IF it does break 1400, expect a major move up, small resistence at 1420, then if we break that it's off to the races to the 200 MA.
I would hate to be the sucker holding a short position if the sp500 does break 1400.
But IF it does break 1400, expect a major move up, small resistence at 1420, then if we break that it's off to the races to the 200 MA.
I would hate to be the sucker holding a short position if the sp500 does break 1400.
I did not study it yet carefully, but the gap would be closed. I will short it as soon as the low of Friday is broken (which can happen the next Friday day). Upside is limited at this point. I shorted IWM on Friday at 72.00, and it had made me 0.50 since.