Riverbed Rvbd

M

michaelscott

Looks like they had a great earnings report. I sure hope we get back to the old Riverbed. If you cant figure out how to trade this chart, then you shouldnt be trading. Easy money.

I say the stock gets to 36 and then does the old pivot dance, hopefully.
 

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Its simple technical analysis.

You have a cup/handle formation sitting at the end of the chart.

30-25=5 (the rough depth of the cup give or take some pennies)

Then you have the handle which is roughly a 50% retracement. That gives us a price target of 28+5=32. I didnt do an exact math so its probably higher or lower. The afterhours price sits at 31.64.

The line of upper resistance was at around 30. Therefore the resistance is now support. The old upper support line is at 34 dollars.

You could buy this stock in the afterhours session right now and you'll still see a profit as it goes to 34 in 2-5 days. It might even make it to 36.

There will probably be some profit taking in the first 30 minutes of the session. I would be a buyer of the stock at 10am. Easy 10% in a few days.
 

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Correction, I checked the Bollinger Bands and the upper band is at 29. Im going to check the Bollingers in the morning tommorrow.

When a stock leaps over the Bollingers, then I have found that it will pullback until it gets underneath. I think it might pullback off the bollingers for a day or so then continue upward from that point. So it will probably pull back to between 30-31 and that will be the entry point. Place a stop at 29.50.
 
23-Apr-07 28.44 28.98 27.85 28.73 895,100 28.73
20-Apr-07 29.06 29.09 28.01 28.36 1,119,000 28.36
19-Apr-07 29.28 29.71 28.60 28.69 488,100 28.69
18-Apr-07 28.80 29.81 28.71 29.62 484,300 29.62
17-Apr-07 30.21 30.21 29.02 29.26 673,900 29.26
16-Apr-07 29.46 30.02 29.27 30.00 755,000 30.00
13-Apr-07 28.76 29.45 28.57 29.23 678,800 29.23
12-Apr-07 28.46 29.05 28.01 28.76 715,800 28.76
11-Apr-07 28.28 28.79 27.91 28.36 700,400 28.36
10-Apr-07 28.85 28.90 28.16 28.21 701,700 28.21
9-Apr-07 30.15 30.17 28.38 28.99 1,409,300 28.99

Check out the last two days of volume. Haha. Someone leaked the earnings report.

"The company reported net income of $3.3 million, or 5 cents per share, based on more than 70 million shares for the three months ended March 31, compared with a loss of $4.3 million, or 36 cents per share, based on more than 12 million shares last year. Excluding one-time items, Riverbed said its net income was 12 cents per share."

"Sales rose to $42.8 million from $13.7 million in the first quarter of 2006."

"Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected quarterly earnings of 5 cents per share on sales of $38 million."

"The company said the recent period's results marked the first time it was profitable on a GAAP, or generally accepted accounting principles, basis and attributed the gains to the "rapid growth of the wide-area data services market.""
 
Wait until it pulls to low 30 before entry. Its way over the top Bollinger Bands. Im betting on a pullback to between 30.25&30.93.

Then my target price will be 34 dollars. I'll set a sell limit at 33.75.
 
I think its going to hit my price target of $34 today. I was honestly thinking it would take a day or two. Oh well, now time to find the pivot point.
 
High today was 35.50 and then it pulled back.

I made some quick calculations and it will pull back to *approximately* 32.25 or 30. I dont think we will get perfect pricing on this one.

This is the time that we will figure out where the pivot points lie on the chart. It will pullback. I say between 30-32.99. Long it at that point and then we need to discover the next pivot to make this work.

Im not sure if the Cramer pump tonight on Mad Money will effect my analysis. We shall see.
 
My limit hit this morning for a couple of puts on RVBD at the June 30 strike. I agree that 30 is a good entry point. Sell puts to get in, you win if it flattens down there or if it only dips an comes back up. This one is so volatile that selling options works great.
 
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