So interested in what all of you es, nq et. al traders, think about the potential for range (and trading opportunities) today Thursday, day before the employement numbers.
Here's how I see the scenario - outlined with a mentioning first of the general scenario as I see it, and then thoughts on the prospects for tomorrow.
1) we're in a quite established uptrend, that for the last 3 days has gone through a very natual correction
2) TA wise, the correction, once it started out monday, was called for and it was inevitable it had to go south for more than 1 day/ or 10 points - some washing out was required for the mkt. to continue its uptrend.
3) During this inevitable correction, we've been receiving loads of very encouring economic news. The efforts from the media to justify/"explain to us" why we've seen another down day has been good entertainment:
Today after sexy GDP numbers, it was of-course the (completely indifferent) Chicago PPI numbers traders were bearish upon. Tuesday it was the durable goods orders number they blamed for the down-day, that yes...did come in stronger than expected, hinting solid growth and at this stage not an inflationary red flag, as reflected by the the dollar firming and the bonds softening just the bit one could expect. The soaring of the greenbag along with the eurodollar's relative strength vs. domestic bonds, is a good indication of the "feds tightening is near its end" belief is still intact.
4) Have the correction gone far enough, for the market to resume its uptrend? First, when considering the above mentioned sound fundamentals we've received during the correction so far and the mkt.'s reaction to it, it almost appears like we all want this corrrection over and done with quickly, so we can get comfortably long again on a sound foundation TA wise.
5) Well, have we then managed to get the deed done in a quick 3-day fix? If we were to look at the ES alone, it seems to me we could be done and ready for some upside again. But don't know about nq and ym - they could require a bit more downside before we're lined up - I'd love to look at daily charts with closes for yesterday (wednesday) around 1660 and 10800. Not trying to pick (swing) bottoms here, just attempting to gauge the general TA outlook from the dailies with respect to intraday trading opportunities.
6) So, with prices already up quite a bit in the Globex session (es +5.5, nq +7, ym +30 - as the close was pretty much lod for all three, it seems like short-covering), what do you all think of today: an anemic session waiting for tomorrows numbers? Traders alredy prepared now to take long positions in anticipation of a rally, even with prices continuing to rise in todays rth session. Or a another notch down, so we've thoroughly cleaned out for tomorrow? Personally I think the #'s have to quite off in order to hold us back, but have a hard time picturing a long up bar today. Looking forward to your input.
ac
Here's how I see the scenario - outlined with a mentioning first of the general scenario as I see it, and then thoughts on the prospects for tomorrow.
1) we're in a quite established uptrend, that for the last 3 days has gone through a very natual correction
2) TA wise, the correction, once it started out monday, was called for and it was inevitable it had to go south for more than 1 day/ or 10 points - some washing out was required for the mkt. to continue its uptrend.
3) During this inevitable correction, we've been receiving loads of very encouring economic news. The efforts from the media to justify/"explain to us" why we've seen another down day has been good entertainment:
Today after sexy GDP numbers, it was of-course the (completely indifferent) Chicago PPI numbers traders were bearish upon. Tuesday it was the durable goods orders number they blamed for the down-day, that yes...did come in stronger than expected, hinting solid growth and at this stage not an inflationary red flag, as reflected by the the dollar firming and the bonds softening just the bit one could expect. The soaring of the greenbag along with the eurodollar's relative strength vs. domestic bonds, is a good indication of the "feds tightening is near its end" belief is still intact.
4) Have the correction gone far enough, for the market to resume its uptrend? First, when considering the above mentioned sound fundamentals we've received during the correction so far and the mkt.'s reaction to it, it almost appears like we all want this corrrection over and done with quickly, so we can get comfortably long again on a sound foundation TA wise.
5) Well, have we then managed to get the deed done in a quick 3-day fix? If we were to look at the ES alone, it seems to me we could be done and ready for some upside again. But don't know about nq and ym - they could require a bit more downside before we're lined up - I'd love to look at daily charts with closes for yesterday (wednesday) around 1660 and 10800. Not trying to pick (swing) bottoms here, just attempting to gauge the general TA outlook from the dailies with respect to intraday trading opportunities.
6) So, with prices already up quite a bit in the Globex session (es +5.5, nq +7, ym +30 - as the close was pretty much lod for all three, it seems like short-covering), what do you all think of today: an anemic session waiting for tomorrows numbers? Traders alredy prepared now to take long positions in anticipation of a rally, even with prices continuing to rise in todays rth session. Or a another notch down, so we've thoroughly cleaned out for tomorrow? Personally I think the #'s have to quite off in order to hold us back, but have a hard time picturing a long up bar today. Looking forward to your input.
ac
