profitseer's time tested e mini system
- Thread starter profitseer
- Start date
OK, now I got another gem. Have you ever heard that exits are much more important than entries, that in fact they "make" the system? Have you heard that "simple" MA crossover systems where you buy on upcross and sell on downcross, will whipsaw you to death, and have a consistently terrible (negative!) performance over any statistically significant stretch of time? Well, you prolly have heard of this stuff. So I'm puzzled as to why you posted something like that. You are invited to come thru with the "exit specifics", otherwise this was just another worthless blablabla post
Willibald or anyone else with good testing capabilities, could you please backtest over a long period of time (at least few years)? 06-08 of 2002 were unusually trendy intraday... so I'd bet this has skewed the results.
Aaaah, presented with "one simple concept that works" then you ask for more. What is it you want, someone to give you a system?
I did not present to you a moving average crossover system. That is a two moving average system. That bad call on your part in itself makes me think you need to study a lot more. It seems that you have read a little, and checked out nothing for yourself.
Did you look at the examples of the charts that I described? It doesn't sound like you did. It sounds like you have a little knowledge and with acrimony you are seeking more.
Too bad you interpret these posts as blah blah blah. There is a lot of wealth here for the student of trading.
Given the entry method I presented to you, I challenge you to determine your own exit rule. Clearly the profit opportunity was huge on each of the stocks I showed you.
Why don't you use the same chart layout and try putting in other symbols. See whether or not you had a nice profit opportunity. Determine for yourself what makes a good candidate. Here is a hint for you. Keep your stop loss tight on the entry. Look for yourself... if you get in the day it closes above or below for the first time, does it close back and forth over and over and over and over, draining your little account to nothing? Or does it continue the move like GM and EXPE. And the ones that do "whipsaw", how many times did it do it before the real move began? Use close only. Check out MO.
I suppose you want someone to give you some more symbols too.
Please don't quote what you have read. Next thing you know you'll be throwing the ol' "buy low sell high" cliche out there and rant that it is the only way.
Here is the real kicker. I know that if you have looked at charts, you probably have looked at the Sept 11 period and cursed the world because there was no way anyone could have profited unless it was pure luck. Well gloomyskies, using the same layout, take a look at DAL, AMR, UAL. See, you were already short weeks to months before the tragedy. Doh! That means you were in. Look at every stock you can think of then, all 3-4 of them.
Would you have been in using this simple method of entry.
It is not just simple. There is good reason to follow the major moving averages. Do you know why?
Instead of quoting what you have read, please share with us your experiences. Provide some original insight instead of that crybaby stuff you have been posting.
I await your contribution. But please, look at the charts yourself, first. It is better for discussion when you know what you're talking about.
And remember...
I did not present to you a moving average crossover system. That is a two moving average system. That bad call on your part in itself makes me think you need to study a lot more. It seems that you have read a little, and checked out nothing for yourself.
Did you look at the examples of the charts that I described? It doesn't sound like you did. It sounds like you have a little knowledge and with acrimony you are seeking more.
Too bad you interpret these posts as blah blah blah. There is a lot of wealth here for the student of trading.
Given the entry method I presented to you, I challenge you to determine your own exit rule. Clearly the profit opportunity was huge on each of the stocks I showed you.
Why don't you use the same chart layout and try putting in other symbols. See whether or not you had a nice profit opportunity. Determine for yourself what makes a good candidate. Here is a hint for you. Keep your stop loss tight on the entry. Look for yourself... if you get in the day it closes above or below for the first time, does it close back and forth over and over and over and over, draining your little account to nothing? Or does it continue the move like GM and EXPE. And the ones that do "whipsaw", how many times did it do it before the real move began? Use close only. Check out MO.
I suppose you want someone to give you some more symbols too.
Please don't quote what you have read. Next thing you know you'll be throwing the ol' "buy low sell high" cliche out there and rant that it is the only way.
Here is the real kicker. I know that if you have looked at charts, you probably have looked at the Sept 11 period and cursed the world because there was no way anyone could have profited unless it was pure luck. Well gloomyskies, using the same layout, take a look at DAL, AMR, UAL. See, you were already short weeks to months before the tragedy. Doh! That means you were in. Look at every stock you can think of then, all 3-4 of them.
Would you have been in using this simple method of entry.It is not just simple. There is good reason to follow the major moving averages. Do you know why?
Instead of quoting what you have read, please share with us your experiences. Provide some original insight instead of that crybaby stuff you have been posting.
I await your contribution. But please, look at the charts yourself, first. It is better for discussion when you know what you're talking about.
And remember...
I would like to add something of my research in the EuroStoxx future. This is not a trading system this is just part of a larg experiment I did and I think this could be useful for many here. It has only demonstrational value!
The method is simple:
Rule1: When the price crosses above the mofing average.
Rule2: The High of one bar ago is higher than the high of two bars ago and the high of today is higher as the high of the last bar.
Rule3: Trailingstopp of 3 points
Rule4: Sell when price is less or equal the moving average.
I did the tests on a 25 Minute chart on the Eurostoxxfuture. And this test is only on long positions.
Time Period: 2 years.
For TradeStation Users here is the EL Code: (very simple)
{Editor: Alain Beyeler
Date: 15.June 2002}
Inputs: Price(Close), Length(5), Amount(30), PositionBasis(True);
Var: Avg(0), Avg2(0);
{Exponential Moving Average}
Avg = XAverage(Price, Length);
{Enry Signals}
Condition1 = Price < Avg;
Condition2 = (H[2] < H[1]) and (H[1] > H);
{Exit Signals}
Condition5 = Price >= Avg;
IncludeSignal: "Dllr Risk Trailing" , PositionBasis, Amount;
IncludeSignal: "Close at end of day";
If Condition1 and Condition2 then buy next bar at market;
If Condition5 then exitlong next bar at market;
{end of code}
as addition the performance report and the equity curve.
This is not to show a trading system. This is to show how simple the methods of real trading are.
The method is simple:
Rule1: When the price crosses above the mofing average.
Rule2: The High of one bar ago is higher than the high of two bars ago and the high of today is higher as the high of the last bar.
Rule3: Trailingstopp of 3 points
Rule4: Sell when price is less or equal the moving average.
I did the tests on a 25 Minute chart on the Eurostoxxfuture. And this test is only on long positions.
Time Period: 2 years.
For TradeStation Users here is the EL Code: (very simple)
{Editor: Alain Beyeler
Date: 15.June 2002}
Inputs: Price(Close), Length(5), Amount(30), PositionBasis(True);
Var: Avg(0), Avg2(0);
{Exponential Moving Average}
Avg = XAverage(Price, Length);
{Enry Signals}
Condition1 = Price < Avg;
Condition2 = (H[2] < H[1]) and (H[1] > H);
{Exit Signals}
Condition5 = Price >= Avg;
IncludeSignal: "Dllr Risk Trailing" , PositionBasis, Amount;
IncludeSignal: "Close at end of day";
If Condition1 and Condition2 then buy next bar at market;
If Condition5 then exitlong next bar at market;
{end of code}
as addition the performance report and the equity curve.
This is not to show a trading system. This is to show how simple the methods of real trading are.
You can't test a system like this without tick data. If you get an entry signal on the current (25-minute) bar and the system goes long, how can you tell if your trailing stop was triggered before the end of the bar? Answer - you can't without tick data.
There is obviously something wrong with the results because there is no way you will get 51% winning trades with a trend following strategy with such a tight stop.
There is obviously something wrong with the results because there is no way you will get 51% winning trades with a trend following strategy with such a tight stop.
Excellent Alain! I have just sent the paperwork in for a new equities tradestation account. One of the reasons is to be able to "test" the many ideas that come into a thnking trder's head.
Profitseer mentioned the other day some advice that I think is as healthy as I haev read on these threads: (paraphrased) a problem for many traders is trying to "perfect" a system that is working well, thus messing it up.
All I know is....
Profitseer mentioned the other day some advice that I think is as healthy as I haev read on these threads: (paraphrased) a problem for many traders is trying to "perfect" a system that is working well, thus messing it up.
All I know is....