probabilty data for option writing

Z

zman7854

Does anyone know of where to obtain probability data for option writing? I used to refer to www.investment-tools.com they used to be free now they charge $300/year. Any other sites out there? I like to do option writes occasionally of options that have a 90% probability of expiring worthless. Any links would be greatly appreciated. thnks.
 
While I think I understand where you are coming from and still can't help you with your question, consider this: Why is it important whether a certain option has an implied probability of 90% and not 80% or 95%? I might be completely wrong here, but don't these calculations assume a normal distribution? Even if they use a more sophisticated model, I think such an abstract approach is not necessarily optimal. May I suggest as an alternative to look at support and resistance levels of the underlying when choosing your strike price?
 
Thanks Lobster, your correct, I absolutely look at the chart when deciding to place an option write among other technicals. I never chose an option write solely on probabilities. Thanks for the reply.
 
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