Probability Through the Lens of Coin Flipping

[pinabetal]

That may depend on the force of the flipper! LOL the distance the coin travels through the air. The thumb flipping action could may it flip slow or fast and the distance traveled while flipping would involve the amount of flips..lots of variables. Now if a machine could exactly duplicate, in both coins, the amount of flips and distance traveled in the flips then it would not take as many flips.

The same problem occurs in trading. No two days are exact in the force applied on the markets. Even two trends differ from each other. It is an ocean of uncertainty. But i know which coin I want. The one that gives me the slight edge 60%. If the institutions are the thumbs doing the flipping ........well........ the thing about it........ even the institutions get it wrong.

 

[BlackMouse]

Brilliant article. This should be compulsory reading for anyone want to test or develop a trading strategy

 

[marketsurfer]

You do know that this post doesn't really help your money management business @marketsurfer? Since it basically says, don't give your money to active managers

I don't run a money management business.

surf

 

[MKTrader]

You do know that this post doesn't really help your money management business @marketsurfer? Since it basically says, don't give your money to active managers

No, it says to evaluate money managers just like you would a trading system. In both cases, you tend to get "fooled by randomness" more often than not.

 

[Quantfisher]

225.

 

[lovethetrade]

Brilliant article. This should be compulsory reading for anyone want to test or develop a trading strategy

What's the moral of the story?