Paper trading for a year!

[murray t turtle]

If trading was like driving a car, then everybody would be able to do it. A driver knows with almost complete certainty what is coming next.

Trading is the polar opposite of this, with most outcomes being close to unpredictable. It is a chaotic, dynamic, competitive game. In this kind of environment, empirical modeling ("Historical Testing") is one of the most powerful tools for decision making. It's more than just "well and good", it's foundational for quant trading.

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Every body can trade/more so than drive a car. A blind person could still trade over the phone.
Depends on what kind of trading;
some is very close to predictable, say over 10 years. Thats fine DCC, average trade= 46 weeks;
may want to average 46 days or92 days=Less drawdowns/trainwrecks. In addition to50 weeks average also or a bit more for dividends.............................................................................................................

 

[cruisecontrol]

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Every body can trade/more so than drive a car. A blind person could still trade over the phone.

I guess blind person can drive a car too because anyone can just turn the key and press the gas? If you don't include a proper measure of success in the definition of being "able to do something", it gets silly quickly.

Depends on what kind of trading;
some is very close to predictable, say over 10 years. Thats fine DCC, average trade= 46 weeks;
may want to average 46 days or92 days=Less drawdowns/trainwrecks. In addition to50 weeks average also or a bit more for dividends.............................................................................................................

True, predictability increases, but most people would call 10 year holding periods investing, not trading. It is almost a completely different world. I do quant trading and have spent many years acquiring the relevant know-how. If I were to switch to 10 year holding periods I would have to throw it all out and start completely from scratch because literally nothing I do has any relation to that.

 

[murray t turtle]

I guess blind person can drive a car too because anyone can just turn the key and press the gas? If you don't include a proper measure of success in the definition of being "able to do something", it gets silly quickly.


True, predictability increases, but most people would call 10 year holding periods investing, not trading. It is almost a completely different world. I do quant trading and have spent many years acquiring the relevant know-how. If I were to switch to 10 year holding periods I would have to throw it all out and start completely from scratch because literally nothing I do has any relation to that.

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I see your points/10 years/20 years is not my main trading/investing trend period.
No not really driving when a person is blind. BUT any blind or[ 20/20 vision] could trade off end of day\end of month radio or TV quotes=is my point. Assume they[ blind or 20/20 vision] knew how markets work while they could see or someone helped them.......................................................................................

 

[tayte]

Back testing and walk forward is completed. I'm paper trading now in IB a weekly system with an average bars (weeks) held of 46 . Avg wins are 61 bars. 68 trades per year on average. Gaining statistical significance for this system is too long for my patience. Damn, any suggestions on speeding up the process?

Hey just out of curiosity, where did you get the idea that this is "the process"? Is this a ritual a lot of guys these days think they need to do before trading real money? I'm genuinely curious, thanks.