Optimism Linked to Poor Decision-Making and Lower Cognitive Skills

[Frederick Foresight]

why would I do that? This is ET.

Didn't think so.

 

[newwurldmn]

Didn't think so.

i just read the actual article.

it's a slightly different spin on dunning-kruger.

i know too many very smart people who have left a lot of money on the table by being overly "pessimistic." I know too many not as smart people who have made a lot of moeny by being overly optimistic and using that optimism to forge their own path.

"Not as smart" is a relative term here (talking Ivy league graduates vs state school graduates). Unlike the conclusion in the movie Trading Places, upbringing impacts decision prowess as much (if not more) than breeding.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

it's a slightly different spin on dunning-kruger.

That was my take as well. As for the rest of your post, I understand your point. But that doesn't invalidate the research findings.

 

[newwurldmn]

That was my take as well. As for the rest of your post, I understand your point. But that doesn't invalidate the research findings.

no it doesn't.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

In terms of decision making, the classic Kahneman/Tversky studies seem to suggest exactly the opposite, that neutral to tempered-positive thinking leads to better decision making. However, I think the article says something else, something along the lines "if you see a bubbly optimist, he's likely to be an idiot", rather than imply that pessimistic people make better decisions (I only skimmed the original paper: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672231209400 so take it with a grain of salt). That matches my anecdotal experience and can be, in many ways, "verified" here on ET. Overconfidence is a prime form of excessive optimism and ET is overconfidence central.

In any case, my problem with the study is that it was done in the UK and does not correct for the cultural biases. It's hard to separate biological pessimism from ability to evaluate risk. It's probably even harder to separate biological optimism from the bullshit societal pressures. So my expectation would be that societies that foster a cynical, negative outlook on life (e.g. Russia) produce idiots who are cynical pessimists, while societies like the US and the UK (where every bit of media screams about meritocracy) produce optimistic, growth-mind-set idiots.

Some thought-provoking observations.

 

[murray t turtle]

I believe that most inventors were optimists because a pessimist wouldn't even start, they already know at the beginning that nothing will work out

%%
Good points/good %, good rant;
good year.
NOT a prediction