Odd-Lot Short Sales on the rise

[chasinfla]

buying the selling.
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the 'cumulative' figure is just a running total of the 'net buy sell' field of the "NYSE Memebers Report" found in the Market Lab of Barron's.

Is it significant that the trend is clearly up? Well, for starters, we don't have enough data to know whether this is likely to represent net longs or just short covering. If it's net longs, I doubt our public spirited friends on the floor are going to sell out at a loss. If it is short covering, then there'll be plenty of room to short again. I suppose, though, they'd want to be short at favorable prices, so maybe a rally?

Either way, this info is 2 weeks old so we have no clue where they sit now.

 

[chasinfla]

yes, mildly bearish, but I'm not impressed enough to take a position based on this info alone.

 

[mercedes500]

Let the little guys die as usual.

 

[chasinfla]

this from Dow Jones...

Thank you for your e-mail message. Neither Barron's Online or the Wall
Street Journal Online archives market information. We only carry the
most recent. We apologize for this inconvenience.

Please contact us at the information below if we can be of further
assistance.

Best Regards,

Wall Street Journal Online Customer Support

 

[nusrat]

chazz, mac

Quote from chasinfla:this from Dow Jones... Neither Barron's Online or [sic] the Wall Street Journal Online archives market information

aaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggh!
damn.
well, thanks for pursuing it, chazz.
how "20th-century".
shouldn't be surprised, since apparently they can't even afford copy-editors (or vs. nor usage).
I guess I'll have to either start scanning in this stack of back issues, or try again to find that site where the guy has been copying it manually.

 

[Babak]

Chas,

Have you looked into pro (not retail) short interest? It is a very interesting indicator.

Ofcourse, the point is that when they have to carry a short inventory, it is because no one else is ponying up to sell ... which means a toppy short term market. And vice versa.

Also, you need waaaay more data than what you are putting on those graphs!! Be careful you don't make inferences on an insignificant sample size.

 

[tech2003]

Short covering contributed to the recent rallies. But I do think the rallies are sustainable.

 

[mercedes500]

You made your point. The market has been going up steadily over the past few weeks.

 

[chasinfla]

Quote from Babak:

Chas,

Have you looked into pro (not retail) short interest? It is a very interesting indicator.

Ofcourse, the point is that when they have to carry a short inventory, it is because no one else is ponying up to sell ... which means a toppy short term market. And vice versa.

Also, you need waaaay more data than what you are putting on those graphs!! Be careful you don't make inferences on an insignificant sample size.

Pro vs. Odd Lot: Yes, absolutely. However, the NYSE makes the data available only after a two week delay.

I have posted some charts here showing Member short positions viz a viz the Spoo closes, and, as one might expect, the short positions increase into rallies.

As for the sample size, I agree. That's a caveat I place on the charts from time to time.

These indicators are of limited utility until extremes are reached, except perhaps for certain special circumstances, depending on market action. And even then, other things must be considered. Currently I have my eye on the VIX.

 

[chasinfla]

since I figured out how to create two axis charts. someday I hope I can do multiple axis charts.
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