Odd-Lot Short Sales on the rise

Chas,

I don't think $750 is of any significance, although I don't have any long term gold charts. I just remember it got up around $800 or so, way back when.

What is interesting though, is the exhaustion runs that often take place in gold stocks around trouble periods. Pull up ASA on a long term chart, sort of interesting contra indicator.

This weeks Barrons indicated that Naz short interest has been dropping, mildly bearish I suppose.

Happy Holidays
 
happy holidays to you as well.


I'll be posting the charts a day or so late -- been busy and this week I don't think it's a make or break thing (not that it ever is, but less so just now).
 
and worth the wait.
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=180846"></img>

What's nice about this is that the odd-lot short sales are at an extreme. Given that the whole sell-off was on fairly light volume, if odd-lot theory still holds, their gooses are pretty well cooked.

Having said that, the last time this thing peaked, the sell off went on for a few more sessions.

So, I'm not jumping on this all by itself, but it does set a bullish tone, imho. And since this is primarily a daytrader's board, I ought remind daytraders that this stuff sits in the background -- it's not for trade timing.

And, I'm not even willing to say it's accurate. It's an <i>indicator,</i> like a mood ring...trying to give insight into the temperaments of one very complex lady. You gotta pay attention to lots of other things too.
 

Attachments

the odd-lot short chart shows a ratio of odd-lot shorts to total NYSE volume, so when total volume is light, increases in odd-lot shorts will be exaggerated graphically. Like everything that occurs on light volume, it's validity might be questioned.
 
Chas,

How do you interpret the OLSS ratio vs. the VIX? I find it curious that the VIX is low (relatively) and the OLSS ratio has broken Sept highs.

Also of note is the AD line has not been too bad. Depending what you were long you could have been ok. So the level of short selling is strange given the markets recent action.

One data point I am kicking around is the 1929 crash ended with a bear market bottom on July 8, 1932.. 00/29 01/30 02/31
1932---2003?? It seems that the talking heads are largely missing this in their analysis of 4 down years.

My analysis too is not linked toward daytrading. I am leaning toward buyable pull-backs at this point. So far the first week of this year is looking a lot like last year.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top