Oct Natural gas being sold bigtime

J

jasonjm

wow.....

some heavy duty selling this week

but nov and dec contracts dont seem to be that willing to give up as much....

I am definitely underwater on my positions now

where be the bottom lol
 
The thing has been down since ernesto was a bluff. I hope u are not averaging down. Otherwise, there will be another Bo Collins.
 
im long OCT 1 QG future from 6.8

and another now from 6.045

on a pretty large account, but i dont like losing money hehe

the difference in the price of the monthly contracts is just amazing to me

Im pretty new to NG, its movements are crazy
 
Quote from jasonjm:

im long OCT 1 QG future from 6.8

and another now from 6.045

on a pretty large account, but i dont like losing money hehe

the difference in the price of the monthly contracts is just amazing to me

Im pretty new to NG, its movements are crazy
More...

i'm in the same position as you (avg long 6.45 oct, but also short november avg 8.46 right now.)

this is very unlike previous years because the spread between Oct and Nov is so gigantic. i'm hoping cash spot prices (6.40 today) will act as support for the futures, so perhaps this selling will be followed by a short covering upsurge.

Today I do have another theory that no one is yet discounting Nov yet because hurricane systems generally take a few weeks to develop and follow through. So basically that makes the likelyhood of a cat 3-5 hurricane killing gulf platforms before Oct futures expiration much lower than Nov.

That can be the only explanation for this price difference of $2.15 right now - nearly 25% between the two contracts.

I still think it won't hold - last year's price difference between oct and nov was much much less.
 
any place to see historical price differences between contracts as they expire (I mean as a contract expires, to see the difference between it and the next months contract?)

I wouldn't mind calculating it by hand i guess if i could find the data somewhere too
 
Broke 6 bucks. Fire in a jam packed theatre. Everyone is running to the door.

One thing to note tho. The NYMEX raised margin for natty gas. Guess what will happen to the undercapitalized weak longs?
 
Quote from jasonjm:

any place to see historical price differences between contracts as they expire (I mean as a contract expires, to see the difference between it and the next months contract?)

I wouldn't mind calculating it by hand i guess if i could find the data somewhere too
More...

http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/
 
Spread at 4.02 for Dec now. WoW! Just 50 days left in the contract. 4.02 for 50 days storage. Sure it is out of line, but not sure why arbitrager are not stepping in. Record storage, maybe no capacity at all to take advantage of the 4.02.
 
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