NQ and YM: getting whipsawed in first 30 minutes

[svtrader]

I find that in hindsight, entering in the first 30 minutes (9:30 - 10 am) makes for the best gains, IF I can get the market direction right. More often than not, I get whipsawed in those violent market moves, even though I often trade pairs.

If I wait and enter in the direction of the trend, often times most of the move has already taken place. Just wondering, what do you find as the best time to trade NQ and YM?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from svtrader:

I find that in hindsight, entering in the first 30 minutes (9:30 - 10 am) makes for the best gains, IF I can get the market direction right. More often than not, I get whipsawed in those violent market moves, even though I often trade pairs.

If I wait and enter in the direction of the trend, often times most of the move has already taken place. Just wondering, what do you find as the best time to trade NQ and YM?

Doesn't have anything to do with time but with prep. I just posted this, for example, to someone's thread who's been researching just this question:

Today, for example, I saw that price was in a tight range premkt bet 53 and 51. That I suppose would be neutral. Then price began to climb, which is a plus. At the open it then dropped to the midpoint of that range, at 52, then rallied to 58, then falling to make a higher low, which provided a long signal. I don't know how you would translate all that into points, but the process of ticking off milestones or markers of behavior into a tradeable move doesn't seem to be that much different. It all comes back to what do you want to see and do you see it? (Of course, in order to know what it is that you want to see, you have to do the observation and the testing, which is what you've been doing since May.)

Again, you have to know exactly what it is you're looking for before you know whether or not you're seeing it. And if you don't know what you're looking for, you're screwed.

 

[svtrader]

Quote from dbphoenix:


Again, you have to know exactly what it is you're looking for before you know whether or not you're seeing it. And if you don't know what you're looking for, you're screwed.

I trade based on technicals - even though I see what I'm looking for, that often changes 2 minutes after I've entered the trade in the first 30 minutes.

What I'm realizing is that once the dust settles and people have a chance to reflect on what's happened during the first hour or two, the market moves are generally less violent, but that often means slim gains.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from svtrader:

I trade based on technicals - even though I see what I'm looking for, that often changes 2 minutes after I've entered the trade in the first 30 minutes.

What I'm realizing is that once the dust settles and people have a chance to reflect on what's happened during the first hour or two, the market moves are generally less violent, but that often means slim gains.

If by "technicals" you mean indicators, that's going to be a continuing problem since they lag. By the time they tell you your pants are on fire, you're already burned. If you mean patterns, that isn't going to help much either since by the time they're formed, it's too late.

If by technicals, though, you mean price action, which is what "technicals" meant before indicators, you may want to look at the last two days of observations and trades in the Son Of If You Can Draw A Straight Line thread. If it interests you, fine. If not, also fine. But if it does interest you at least you'll stand a better chance of getting in while everybody else is wondering what the hell is going on.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from svtrader:

I find that in hindsight, entering in the first 30 minutes (9:30 - 10 am) makes for the best gains, IF I can get the market direction right. More often than not, I get whipsawed in those violent market moves, even though I often trade pairs.

If I wait and enter in the direction of the trend, often times most of the move has already taken place. Just wondering, what do you find as the best time to trade NQ and YM?

Your trade signals and their results should be telling you when is the best time to trade NQ, YM or anything else.

For example, if your trade signals are ONLY appearing in the first 30 minutes of the trading session and not appearing anytime else...and you're making profits...that should be your answer.

Yet, if your trade signals are appearing all day but your profits are primarily occurring in the first 30 minutes...that should be your answer.

That's why whenever you start seeing a change in the market dynamics of what you're trading or trading has become more difficult than what you're use to trading...stop trading and do some statistical work involving your trade signals to see if you need to make some changes in your trading...that's where you'll find your answers.

Last of all, NQ and YM aren't the only futures trading instruments on this planet. Regardless, if you're talking about "hindsight" without spending a few hours to verify (backtesting your trade signals) what you see happen in those first 30 minutes of the regular trading session...jumping with only hindsight info is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[bighog]

Quote from dbphoenix:

If by "technicals" you mean indicators, that's going to be a continuing problem since they lag. By the time they tell you your pants are on fire, you're already burned. If you mean patterns, that isn't going to help much either since by the time they're formed, it's too late.

If by technicals, though, you mean price action, which is what "technicals" meant before indicators, you may want to look at the last two days of observations and trades in the Son Of If You Can Draw A Straight Line thread. If it interests you, fine. If not, also fine. But if it does interest you at least you'll stand a better chance of getting in while everybody else is wondering what the hell is going on.

Patterns actually are "mom's milk" as nourishment to place a % on what comes next. A simple "look-back" at price without seeing a PATTERN is useless. Levels alone are a form of patterns because the PATTERN is dispatching info to the gray matter between the ears.
2

: a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other observable characteristics of a person, group, or institution <patterns of behavior>


3

: an established mode of behavior or cluster of mental attitudes, beliefs, and values that are held in common by members of a group

EXAMPLE: I detect a pattern in your posts to direct the viewer to your threads.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from bighog:

Patterns actually are "mom's milk" as nourishment to place a % on what comes next. A simple "look-back" at price without seeing a PATTERN is useless. Levels alone are a form of patterns because the PATTERN is dispatching info to the gray matter between the ears.
2: a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other observable characteristics of a person, group, or institution <patterns of behavior>
3: an established mode of behavior or cluster of mental attitudes, beliefs, and values that are held in common by members of a group

EXAMPLE: I detect a pattern in your posts to direct the viewer to your threads.

Perhaps you'd care to guide sv through the first 30m of the trading session over the next couple of weeks and show him in more-or-less real time how patterns will improve his results.

 

[bighog]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Perhaps you'd care to guide sv through the first 30m of the trading session over the next couple of weeks and show him in more-or-less real time how patterns will improve his results.

Why would I need to do that? I do not believe in playing "follow the leader" in a game of chance where one pretends to be the whiz-master and the other try's to replicate.

Truth be known, day-trading is about making decisions, usually many decisions are OFFERED once any trade is filled. The decision to enter is based on the past, that implies a pattern, a pattern can be as simple as going LONG a tick above the previous bar or going SHORT a tick below the low.

We all base our entry's on what we saw as a base to make a decision to enter or not, those are called patterns, many forms, many shapes but they indeed are what they are. Once filled, the dynamics of what we based the trade upon for entry are changed with each and every tick and especially with the "PATTERN" of the whole bar itself once it closes.

To imply calling out 'the thinking process' for others to follow for a few minutes a day is not conducive to the learning process because what travels through a discretionary traders head in deciding to hold for more profit, give it a bit more time or room, pull the ripcord now, screw it, add-on for a BE exit which in itself makes more decision possible because what will you decide to do if it indeed comes back to even after the add-on, etc, etc,,,,,,,,,,,the process will not end until that particular trade id exited, win or loss.

Folks like me and a few others do from time to time offer suggestions about trading based on what we "went through" to get where we are. We do not intend to serve up any answers set in stone, we do not use a public forum as a sales tool either, that is tacky at best.

Patterns are life itself, shrinks ask questions, cops drill you, banks dissect you, love can tangle you in a knot, etc, etc.

Please do not suggest any single person or method is the answer to any complicated situation..

We, who suggest, can do that but we can not answer, the answers lie in the individuals. :eek:

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from bighog:

Why would I need to do that? I do not believe in playing "follow the leader" in a game of chance where one pretends to be the whiz-master and the other try's to replicate.

Pity.