Anyone who knows a football from a mug of beer knows that the impending free agency period will be unprecedented, for one giant reason. Never before has a franchise quarterback in his prime with no injury issues become a free agent. Kirk Cousins, formerly of the hapless and inept Redskins, is about to become that free agent. Speculation has been rampant for weeks about where he will land and how gargantuan will his contract actually be? Let's just say it is very very good to be Kirk Cousins.
1. Cousins. Coming off three consecutive 4000 yard seasons, two of which happened to also be all time Redskins yardage records, Cousins offers inestimable value to teams suffering QB envy. There are three main reasons.
One, drafting a QB is risky. 50-50 at best and this year's crop all have red or yellow flags.
Two, developing a QB is tricky. Aaron Rodgers sat for four years behind Brett Favre. Garappolo sat behind Brady. Look at the Brown's Kizer. It was criminal how they threw him out there unprepared last year. Terrible coaching.
Three, even if you develop a QB, the coaching staff and front office may have been fired in the process. If you're picking high, you had a bad record. You don't have five or six years to turn it around. If you can just plug in a guy who has shown for three years that he is quite capable of moving the chains and putting points on the board, you can win some games and point to improvement. He's not Brady or Rodgers, who is? But he looks pretty darn good in comparison to the alternatives, at least for some teams. The question is which team?
Which team should sign Cousins, at whatever cost? The surprising answer is the Browns. They have $100 mill or so in cap space and a young roster of guys on rookie contracts. $30 mill a year for Cousins with huge guarantees would not crimp them in the least. They could pay him $40 mill, surely enough to get him to sign, and still have more cap space than all but a couple of teams.
With their QB situation set, they could draft the best offense and defensive player in the draft using their number 1 and 4 first round picks. They could go out and sign the best FA offensive lineman, Norwell from the Panthers, at whatever it took. $12 mill maybe, crazy for a guard but he's the best in the league. They have two high second round picks as well. They can really upgrade their roster, but none of it works without Cousins. Then, instead of Barkley, they draft a QB at one. They are immediately worse at two positions just by that move. Cousins is a hard worker who knows what he is doing and who demands professionalism from his teammates. Can Josh Rosen do that? From day one?
Current speculation is that Cleveland is instead targeting ex-Bengals backup A. J. McCarron. The Brown's coach was his coordinator in Cincy. McCarron would come a lot cheaper than Cousins, maybe $15-17 mill max and maybe a lot less. You could sign a Pro Bowl skill position player for the difference. But McCarron is unproven. The coach, Hue Jackson, has won a grand total of one game over two seasons. Thrown away stogies are longer than his rope. A losing streak to start the season could get him a mid-season pink slip. Not that it wouldn't be richly deserved. So McCarron seems a curious risk for Jackson to want to take, but again, this man is not Bill Belichick.
Who else would Cousins make sense for? Obviously the Vikings. I didn't really see what was so terrible about Case Keenum but they clearly are ok with moving on. Since Keenum is probably the second most attractive FA QB, the only place to turn is Cousins. The Vikes have enough cap space to sign Cousins comfortably but they have some key vets up for new contracts in the next couple of years and have to watch the spending. This matchup looks ideal but it holds a lot of risk for Cousins. After all, they got to the conference championship game last year. Anything less than the Big Game and plenty of people are going to say they wasted their money on Cousins.
Denver is another team that is mentioned as a frontrunner for Cousins. It's easy to see the attraction. The Bronco's are a vet team with a top defense. Poor QB play destroyed them last year. Their window is closing. But how much of that poor play was on the QBs and how much on the O line and coaches? We know their Oline sucks big time and that they were close to firing their then rookie coach during the season. Plus they are short on cap room and may have to let go important players to afford Cousins. Doesn't sound ideal to me.
Arizona is basically a worse version of Denver. Older team in decline without much cap space.
The Jets have been favored from the outset by many. Leaks that they were prepared to give Cousins a blank check didn't hurt. I can see the attraction for Cousins. Money plus relatively low expectations, compared to say, Minnesota or Denver. But expectations are low for a reason. They are a rebuilding teams with a lot of holes. They do have a vast amount of cap space. One obvious way to get good is sign Cousins, sign a couple of top O line guys and a WR1. They have the sixth pick in the draft. Trade down and get another second rounder, maybe more. Maybe draft the TE from Penn State. They can get a lot better, but it seems to me their best route is to resign McCown and draft a QB. Not the worst option for Cousins but high risk, considering the lack of success.
1. Cousins. Coming off three consecutive 4000 yard seasons, two of which happened to also be all time Redskins yardage records, Cousins offers inestimable value to teams suffering QB envy. There are three main reasons.
One, drafting a QB is risky. 50-50 at best and this year's crop all have red or yellow flags.
Two, developing a QB is tricky. Aaron Rodgers sat for four years behind Brett Favre. Garappolo sat behind Brady. Look at the Brown's Kizer. It was criminal how they threw him out there unprepared last year. Terrible coaching.
Three, even if you develop a QB, the coaching staff and front office may have been fired in the process. If you're picking high, you had a bad record. You don't have five or six years to turn it around. If you can just plug in a guy who has shown for three years that he is quite capable of moving the chains and putting points on the board, you can win some games and point to improvement. He's not Brady or Rodgers, who is? But he looks pretty darn good in comparison to the alternatives, at least for some teams. The question is which team?
Which team should sign Cousins, at whatever cost? The surprising answer is the Browns. They have $100 mill or so in cap space and a young roster of guys on rookie contracts. $30 mill a year for Cousins with huge guarantees would not crimp them in the least. They could pay him $40 mill, surely enough to get him to sign, and still have more cap space than all but a couple of teams.
With their QB situation set, they could draft the best offense and defensive player in the draft using their number 1 and 4 first round picks. They could go out and sign the best FA offensive lineman, Norwell from the Panthers, at whatever it took. $12 mill maybe, crazy for a guard but he's the best in the league. They have two high second round picks as well. They can really upgrade their roster, but none of it works without Cousins. Then, instead of Barkley, they draft a QB at one. They are immediately worse at two positions just by that move. Cousins is a hard worker who knows what he is doing and who demands professionalism from his teammates. Can Josh Rosen do that? From day one?
Current speculation is that Cleveland is instead targeting ex-Bengals backup A. J. McCarron. The Brown's coach was his coordinator in Cincy. McCarron would come a lot cheaper than Cousins, maybe $15-17 mill max and maybe a lot less. You could sign a Pro Bowl skill position player for the difference. But McCarron is unproven. The coach, Hue Jackson, has won a grand total of one game over two seasons. Thrown away stogies are longer than his rope. A losing streak to start the season could get him a mid-season pink slip. Not that it wouldn't be richly deserved. So McCarron seems a curious risk for Jackson to want to take, but again, this man is not Bill Belichick.
Who else would Cousins make sense for? Obviously the Vikings. I didn't really see what was so terrible about Case Keenum but they clearly are ok with moving on. Since Keenum is probably the second most attractive FA QB, the only place to turn is Cousins. The Vikes have enough cap space to sign Cousins comfortably but they have some key vets up for new contracts in the next couple of years and have to watch the spending. This matchup looks ideal but it holds a lot of risk for Cousins. After all, they got to the conference championship game last year. Anything less than the Big Game and plenty of people are going to say they wasted their money on Cousins.
Denver is another team that is mentioned as a frontrunner for Cousins. It's easy to see the attraction. The Bronco's are a vet team with a top defense. Poor QB play destroyed them last year. Their window is closing. But how much of that poor play was on the QBs and how much on the O line and coaches? We know their Oline sucks big time and that they were close to firing their then rookie coach during the season. Plus they are short on cap room and may have to let go important players to afford Cousins. Doesn't sound ideal to me.
Arizona is basically a worse version of Denver. Older team in decline without much cap space.
The Jets have been favored from the outset by many. Leaks that they were prepared to give Cousins a blank check didn't hurt. I can see the attraction for Cousins. Money plus relatively low expectations, compared to say, Minnesota or Denver. But expectations are low for a reason. They are a rebuilding teams with a lot of holes. They do have a vast amount of cap space. One obvious way to get good is sign Cousins, sign a couple of top O line guys and a WR1. They have the sixth pick in the draft. Trade down and get another second rounder, maybe more. Maybe draft the TE from Penn State. They can get a lot better, but it seems to me their best route is to resign McCown and draft a QB. Not the worst option for Cousins but high risk, considering the lack of success.
