There is some merit to what you say SimpleMeLike. My plan is simply to trade the markets with techniques that are likely to be successful a bit more than they are likely to be unsuccessful, given the cycle in which the market is in, on any given time frame. That is why I can trade the markets in practically any environment that takes place within a cycle. Broad ranges, tight ranges, strong BO’s, weak BO’s, reversals, PB’s shallow and deep.
Conceptually, I see NO NOISE in the markets. If price moves 1 tick there is a reason why it does so. Conceptually I don’t see the market as random. What is a bit random is WHEN something like a BO of a range will actually happen. But when it does happen there is a reason it happened and the evident pressures that were exerted to cause the BO can usually be harnessed for profit, utilizing certain techniques or tactics. I believe the market has inertia and tends to keep doing what it is doing until enough pressure is exerted to change that. Charts, in my view, are just graphical pictures of those pressures as they play out. I believe a trader, if they can learn to read pressures in a chart, can jump in at practically any moment and start trading, on say a 5 min chart of the ES.
That is why I can get my lazy carcass out of bed at 9:30, grab a cup of coffee and start trading almost immediately. Or if feeling chirpy I can rise at 6 a.m. drink coffee, shower, eat, and be looking to trade the market on the open. I don’t need pre-market analysis. I don’t need news. The chart shows all I need.
On a 5 min chart there are usually at least 8 to 20 decent 1 to 3 point scalps. Isn’t that enough? Once good at detecting them and trading them then position size is where the money is. A trader doesn’t have to look at, and try to find those longer trends to make money. Do the math. If a trader can average 2 points day (after all losses for the month) on 5 ES contracts he can make 10,000 month before comm. Yearly......??. Bump that up to 10 contracts...yearly?? .bump it down to 2 contracts. Even 2 contracts better than the average SS check.
ok average 3 points on 1 contract day that is close to max SS benefit one can draw.
My point is 4 fold.
1) learn the cycle the market is in for any given TF
2) learn and practice the myriad of techniques that give an edge for that cycle and learn how to implement them live. Get good at it and up size as able.
3) It is easier to read force and inertia and extrapolate that out (predict, forecast, anticipate, whatever tickles your fancy) on 5 min charts than on weekly or monthly charts. Said another way it is easier to predict (uh oh ...just open a can of worms) 5 minutes or 15 minutes from now than 1 month from now. Liken that to weather forecasting. You generally don’t hear the weather man predicting the weather out 6 months or ten years except for the climate change people...ROFLMAO. I well remember them in the 70’s predicting a time of freezing and cooling. Could make a body want to stockpile coats... boots...etc The so called freeze never happened so the narrative changed. Now days it is global warming. Stockpile the tee shirt and swimming trunks..ROFLMAO.
4)learn to read pressures and inertia in the market and you will never become outdated, at least in our lifetime. This is not about setups. It is about reading the pressures, the inertia, and using techniques to take advantage of those. Years ago, I day traded primarily one setup back in the day when stocks trade in fractions....1/4...1/8...1/2..3/4...etc. I would watch several stocks on the Amex and NYSE and when the specialist would open the spread I would jump in, take a slice out of the middle and do this over and over all day long. That game ended when they went to decimals. But, what I am talking about in the above will never leave a trader on the sidelines with no setup to trade.
Bottom line. I don’t care what the market does each day. Up, down, sideways, broad, tight, slow, fast...my ONLY plan is to interpret what it is doing and pull a technique out that is suitable to trade whatever the market is doing in that session, at the moment.
I admit it does take alot of time and practice to get good at this but it can be done and then no one can take it away from you. No HFT, no bank, no hedge fund...none of the big boys so to speak can stop you. Why? They cannot and I repeat CANNOT hide what they are doing. They can disguise it for a bit but no coverup can last long. The chart will show what they are doing.
