Monoline central

When will the next big downgrade happen to a monoline?

  • Any minute now

    Votes: 4 36.4%

  • By the end of the week

    Votes: 3 27.3%

  • By the end of February

    Votes: 3 27.3%

  • Won't happen

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Total voters
    11
C

cgtrader

Since this subject is way too important to ignore:

What are your best guess at how soon we could see ratings adjustments or announcements on companies such as:

-Ambac ABK

-MBIA MBI

-Assured Guaranty AGO
 
My thesis is that bad news will continue to hit the press at any and all times. The bond insurers are just another piece of the rotton puzzle. The multi trillion dollar otc derivatives market is like a bad nightmare just waiting to happen and when it does I don't want to be caught with my pants down. Socgen did just that last week and there was nothing US investors could do but watch in horror.
 
Yeah just by chance I watched that sixty minutes the other day. As we are talking about this right now banks are still doing what got them into this disaster in the first place. When the disaster gets big enough and everyone starts pointing the fingers some of these clowns will be walking away with fat compensation packages while others will probably be investigated and sent to jail. Gives you such a nice warm fuzzy feeling inside.
 
Quote from cgtrader:

In case you missed a recent video on the California housing situation:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/60-minutes-legitimizes-walking-away.html

This is how it works. Bob paid $420,000 for his home. Then he notices the house across the street, with more upgrades, and is selling for $315,000.

So Bob, who has pretty good credit, decides to buy the cheaper house. He can't afford both, so then he walks away from his original home, letting it fall into foreclosure. That will hurt his credit, but he's willing to take the hit for a more affordable home.
More...

It seems like " Bob" has found a way to short sell the physical real estate market. :D
 
Fitch cuts FGIC rating to AA from AAA
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Updated: 4:15 PM ET Jan 30, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday that it cut the AAA ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC) to AA because the bond insurer doesn't have enough capital to keep its top rating. Fitch warned it may cut FGIC's ratings further in future. "The existing capital deficiency, which Fitch now believes totals approximately $1.3 billion, resulted from rapid credit deterioration in FGIC's insured portfolio," the rating agency said in a statement. Fitch is most concerned about transactions backed by structured finance collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and direct exposure to securities backed by prime second-lien home loans.
 
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