I follow @volpri and scalp. It is hard to scalp and at the same time let profits run because it tends to run into a big loss, for scalper it is deadly.I'd say a great trend following system (which gets in early and gets out late) is the superior trading system. Especially if it can recognize range bound behavior and can sideline then in order to not get chopped up as most trend following systems invariably do in range bound conditions.
The ultimate trading system would be one that exploits both trends and ranges. Let's call it the holy grail. Anyone who have something like that would obviously not need anything else.
Now, back to predictive modeling or statistical TA if we can call it that instead.
What I do know is that my system allows me to perceive and analyze the markets in a way that's literally impossible if your only input is a chart or an indicator reading. I spent probably 5+ years developing it and it's still a work in progress, as unlike Mickey Mouse, I won't claim to have all the answers. Best to keep an open mind, stay humble and keep learning.
For today, barring any news shocks (ME, etc.), I know that today will most likely see a medium/large rally on the US indices (ES/NQ). This was known before the Globex Open and posted elsewhere in advance (ES-Journal). I like 5400/5410 as an initial target on ES with the possibillity it just keeps going.
What I don't know is if we'd see a gap down or gap up open on RTH, so my strategy for today was to long the Globex Open on small size in case the market ran straight out of the gate. I took a small loss on my initial entry and then went long again close to the swing low on both ES/NQ - still using small size, but have now added a bit to my original position on the way. I will add more contracts on the Open if the market acts as expected within my prediction.
It now looks like a gap up open that will breakout higher. If I'm dead wrong (it's only probabilities, right), I won't lose much and may even secure a small win. If I'm right, it will be a massive pay day.
PS: I don't heavily rely on charts per se, but I do of course use them. Mostly, I'm concerned with capturing the move from A to B. And there can be a ton of random zig zagging between the two.
Making trading calls is futile imo
- Thread starter themickey
- Start date
I'd say a great trend following system (which gets in early and gets out late) is the superior trading system. Especially if it can recognize range bound behavior and can sideline then in order to not get chopped up as most trend following systems invariably do in range bound conditions.
The ultimate trading system would be one that exploits both trends and ranges. Let's call it the holy grail. Anyone who have something like that would obviously not need anything else.
Now, back to predictive modeling or statistical TA if we can call it that instead.
What I do know is that my system allows me to perceive and analyze the markets in a way that's literally impossible if your only input is a chart or an indicator reading. I spent probably 5+ years developing it and it's still a work in progress, as unlike Mickey Mouse, I won't claim to have all the answers. Best to keep an open mind, stay humble and keep learning.
For today, barring any news shocks (ME, etc.), I know that today will most likely see a medium/large rally on the US indices (ES/NQ). This was known before the Globex Open and posted elsewhere in advance (ES-Journal). I like 5400/5410 as an initial target on ES with the possibillity it just keeps going.
What I don't know is if we'd see a gap down or gap up open on RTH, so my strategy for today was to long the Globex Open on small size in case the market ran straight out of the gate. I took a small loss on my initial entry and then went long again close to the swing low on both ES/NQ - still using small size, but have now added a bit to my original position on the way. I will add more contracts on the Open if the market acts as expected within my prediction.
It now looks like a gap up open that will breakout higher. If I'm dead wrong (it's only probabilities, right), I won't lose much and may even secure a small win. If I'm right, it will be a massive pay day.
PS: I don't heavily rely on charts per se, but I do of course use them. Mostly, I'm concerned with capturing the move from A to B. And there can be a ton of random zig zagging between the two.
I noted that I "liked your post" Truth is I LOVED IT ! THANKS
Agree.
Time is useful but there are better ways organize market data.
Useful because a market is made of humans and as we’ve seen in the replies… they abide by the clock. There are seasonalities.
An order is defined by its type (Buy/Sell), its price and its quantity. We don’t care when it took place, at least, it doesn’t have any bearing on the bottom line.
Volatility is of utmost importance though but it’s only a derivative of time (speed). I seldom prefer range, points and figures, charts à la Jesse Livermore.
Why start a new candle because of the clock ?! Especially since there are 24 primary time zones. It’s a completely arbitrary measure.
People had to recalibrate their watch when they took the train in the past. They used the clock at the railway station as a standard.
ps: I am still looking for percent based points and figures charts
but a chart isn’t going to make or break a trader … So anyway.
Last edited:
thanks for the question.Please elaborate on what you mean by "time action".
Time can be broken down into two factors: 1) Timing the entries and exits and 2) the duration of price move. Here, #1 is already baked into price, while #2 is not (although I could argue that it is).
Then there's 3) utilizing different time frames. But that's for another topic
Needless to say, I'm glad you've made this discovery. This is not an easy concept to grasp.
a chart is made up of two things: price and time.
most market participants [MP] when they talk of a market crash think of price falling rapidly.
However, a market crash, can also mean a market, not falling, but staying near the high for a long long time.
this is time action a term i incidentally coined.
You didn't coin ANYTHING, you dumb cunt.
You now think "time action" is some new construct you have discovered for swing trading.
Holy cow, you are so ignominious!
I agree, stocks more difficult to trade cause so much of accounting is bs. I rather look for major bottoms, doomsday at news stand.
Copper one of my favorite markets, now any deep replacements am adding to shorts/hedged. If economy tanks can become long term trade and keep shorting deep retracements.
Mark Douglas IS CORRECT. Important to have a win rate that conforms to your account size and your method of trading -- (Your Edge)
You may PM me if you need more info.