Maine Wants The Enron Loophole Closed

Quote from Avid_Consumer:

definitely a good point, and easy for a small independent spec to miss. how can tiny independent specs compete with such a fragmented and opaque market? maybe 'dark' is the right adjective

if you were confined to the nymex petrotrader (not on a wholesale MM level, just small directional spec confined to exchange price data), could you still conduct a robust business in energy contracts?

are the nymex/cme energy contract positions identifiable by high volume MM's via clearing codes, etc? do houses share or consolidate this info?

over the last 6-10 months, i've been able to identify quantitatively robust directional edges in refined products and exploit them for several weeks at a time, but repeatedly wind up getting picked off and run into the ground after a few weeks of exploiting them. can't seem to hold an edge, and this is really straight forward, under-engineered stuff - not a curve fit situation
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I've never traded energy in a personal account, only institutional/commercial so tough to say but if I were you I would primarily use TA to take positions in short dated futures.

Having said that, NYMEX and ICE are pretty transparent, it's when you get into basis swaps, exotic options, etc that the water becomes muddy.

Regarding your question of whether or not I could conduct a robust business if I were limited to NYMEX, yes, although I would focus on things that most small specs wouldn't consider i.e. spreads on HO and RB options utilizing EOOs and Clearport as well as Globex.

As far as your issue, sounds like you have an issue identifying when to take profits or cut losses, no?
 
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