once again, a friend of mine subscribed to his weekly newsletter, from the end of 2003 to the end of 2004. he forwarded me his newsletter every week.
he has a good psychological mindset and writes good (although extremely basic and short) articles related to trading psychology. i think he even recently released a new book about it.
as far as his market analysis skills, he uses extremely complicated methods that rely a lot on astronomical aspects.
does it make sense to rely on these things? i am not judging.
what i do judge is his performance. about 1% hit rate. he shouts bear basically since august 2003. needless to say we had a few bullish thrusts since then. every week that passed (remember i read his weekly newsletter) he came up with a slew of new reasons why this week the bear will crush us. some reasons related to the charts and some to the alignment of the stars in the sky above. another week passed, another rally, and again pesavento comes up with a slew of reasons why THIS week will be the crush. another week passed, another rally, and again..... and so on. he just doesn't let go. in his newsletter on oct 17, 2003 he wrote, and i quote:
"Someone asked me what it would take to make me turn bullish on stocks as this level. I replied, "a lobotomy" and I was not trying to be funny!"
Very shortly after the markets were up a record 9 weeks in a row.
i too believe that the bear should come eventually. even soon. but, what about TIMING, mr. pesavento. at least he's consistent. when the bear comes, he will shout "look how right i was". he will neglect to say "i was shouting it since august 2003, and the market had several robust rallies since then, visible on every time frame".
every week he makes stocks picks. once again 1% hit rate. you can check his website for his past calls.
and the best of all: "the bradley model". some elaborate model that he claims that can predict the market tens of years in advance (YES, HE CLAIMS THAT). the model, in reality, doesn't correlate to the market. yet when the market rallies and the model forecasts a decline, larry says "the model was temporarily inverted". I AM NOT KIDDING. i still have his newsletters for proof.
