Jim Cramer's Mad Money "Speculative Fridays"

M

michaelscott

I have noticed lately that Jim Cramer's "Speculative Fridays" make excellent short term trades. CVTX seemed to keep going up for a few days after he picked it and now its OMTR. There have been a few others too.

Its very important to note, however, that I dont believe in holding these picks for more then a few days. I just like to get in around 10:30-11:00 on Monday on the dip and then ride them up, dump them late Tuesday or early Weds.

In this last year, Cramer has actually done very well with his calls. If you got in on some of the more talked about picks, then you would see a profit.

Now with any discussion involving Jim Cramer, I have to point out the fact that those stocks that crash are never mentioned again or mentioned again during an apology episode. There are many bad calls that he has made in the past.

Here is one good recent example. IOTN. It makes an energy beam system. If you got in when Cramer said to get in, then you would be looking at a 50% loss. Another stock is FRO. He told his viewers to get out of the stock immediately when it was in the low 30s and now the stock is in the mid 40s a few months later.

So in this thread, every Friday, I will be examining each speculative pick, pulling it apart piece by piece and giving you my opinionon why I believe it is good or bad and exactly what I would do to trade it....lets see what happens from there.
 
Quote from michaelscott:


In this last year, Cramer has actually done very well with his calls. If you got in on some of the more talked about picks, then you would see a profit.

Now with any discussion involving Jim Cramer, I have to point out the fact that those stocks that crash are never mentioned again or mentioned again during an apology episode. There are many bad calls that he has made in the past.

More...

If you are rigorous about tracking Cramer you'll find that he outright sucks.

See cramerwatch.org


Basically, it's Cramer's picks vs a Monkey which flips a coin and either agrees or disagrees with Cramer. Hold time is 30 days. The monkey has a better ROI though it's pretty close. It's interesting to note that since Nov 1 2005 when this guy starting tracking, the SP500 has an average ROI over 30 trading days of around 1.5% crushing both Cramer and the Monkey (who is brought down by having 1/2 of his picks agree with Cramer's)
 
Actually, it looks like Cramerwatch.org hasn't been updated in about 2 months. Never the less, Cramer's well behind the SP500 and slightly behind the coin flipping monkey for the 18 months of data.
 
Quote from michaelscott:

I have noticed lately that Jim Cramer's "Speculative Fridays" make excellent short term trades. CVTX seemed to keep going up for a few days after he picked it and now its OMTR. There have been a few others too.

Its very important to note, however, that I dont believe in holding these picks for more then a few days. I just like to get in around 10:30-11:00 on Monday on the dip and then ride them up, dump them late Tuesday or early Weds.

In this last year, Cramer has actually done very well with his calls. If you got in on some of the more talked about picks, then you would see a profit.

Now with any discussion involving Jim Cramer, I have to point out the fact that those stocks that crash are never mentioned again or mentioned again during an apology episode. There are many bad calls that he has made in the past.

Here is one good recent example. IOTN. It makes an energy beam system. If you got in when Cramer said to get in, then you would be looking at a 50% loss. Another stock is FRO. He told his viewers to get out of the stock immediately when it was in the low 30s and now the stock is in the mid 40s a few months later.

So in this thread, every Friday, I will be examining each speculative pick, pulling it apart piece by piece and giving you my opinionon why I believe it is good or bad and exactly what I would do to trade it....lets see what happens from there.
More...

The fact that you watch Cramer speaks volume about your intelligence or lack thereof. You're still a putz and a flooz who hasn't posted a single winning trade or pick.
 
Stocktrad3er U R an F******G idiot!!!

You have over 2000 post and yet you say nothing. Not once have I seen a post where you supply any TA on any stock that you would enter into.

I'm still waiting for u to justify your existance as a trader, so far you have not supplied the board with any relavant information other than your an Idiot.

Good luck paper trading u jackass.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

The fact that you watch Cramer speaks volume about your intelligence or lack thereof. You're still a putz and a flooz who hasn't posted a single winning trade or pick.
More...

You have no cred and are a 16 yr old fraud
 
I've decided to study Cramer this year. In the past I've made some cursory notes on his trades and somewhat followed Cramer tracking sites and pretty much have the same general conclusions as the rest of you.

"There are many bad calls that he has made in the past."

My pov it is not a valid arguement. Strike outs vs homeruns stats.

Cramer vs monkey. Cramer has a motive.

What I am searching for is to discover Cramers intent, interpretation. He has an opinion on everything, he has to as a showman, but need to screen picks in context.

My starting points are ducks, a good Cramer pick has three ducks in a row. Suppose you knew a stock quite well and he mentions it, does his message touch on what you know or points that you didn't know or simply omit something you thought was important. The points you didn't know or missed for some reason, are they valid?
 
Lets not get confused with the different issues. The thesis and guidelines behind this is the following:

Cramer is a volatility event that augments price action. There are obvious increases in volume sometimes before or after his mention of an equity.

Cramer had stated that he has moved his speculative picks to Friday versus announcing one everyday. His stated purpose is to allow people to think over the weekend. However, since he is now only doing speculative picks one day a week (versus everyday), the attention is focused around one stock versus multiple stocks over the course of a 5 day period.

Therefore, my guidelines are the following:

1) Only his speculative Friday picks will be used.
2) Entrance opportunities are usually created on Monday about 1-2 hours into the trading session. Usually we see a pullback after the first trading hour and then a surge right after.
3) Exit opportunities are usually created Tuesday-Weds.
4) We never hold all the way until Friday.
5) Speculative picks must make sense with the chart and fundamentals.
6) No gonzo companies like the energy beam weapon system. Only mainstream-type companies in which we can fit into the larger picture of the market.
7) Technical indicators like Bollinger Bands will be used to guage the capacity of the stocks price to move and swing.

In this type of strategy, we will not be buy/holders. As stated previously, when a stock of Cramer's tanks then it is never mentioned again or mentioned again within an apology episode.

We just want to get in quickly on the pump and get out quickly before the dump which I believe to be the current overall strategy of this market. Get in before the pump and get out before the dump.
 
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