And a peak of 25,000 deaths a day for the US sometime in June as well : 1 million dead by August.
Is the economic damage worth it to save those lives?
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I don't think we had much of a choice. Think about what 1 million dead Americans (mostly older people) would do to the housing market in this country? The massive influx of sudden new homes for sale coupled with mortgage defaults would absolutely crater the banks and home prices nationally. Let's not even talk about the surge in life insurance claims that would likely bankrupt numerous insurers. Nursing homes across the country would be bankrupted instantly.
Also, out of that 1 million dead Americans, how many leaders of business, academia, research, and government would die? Gotta figure the number would be at least 5,000-10,000 deaths of some of the brightest minds in the US - that is an incredible brain drain on the society...Just how easy is it to replace a 4-star Navy admiral, or a Jeff Bezos, or a Paul Volcker?
Also, if we "just let the virus play itself out" we would probably be looking at a slow, rolling, 2 year period of massive infections, uncertainty, and death. How many people are going to fly on planes during that period? Who will sit in stadiums? Who will ride public transport? Under a slow-spread scenario, we truly would be looking at economic collapse as demand was not able to return....thousands of US businesses would go bankrupt, food supply chains would start to collapse, and next thing you know, we would be standing on lines waiting for the national guard to give us our monthly 20 pound bag of rice to feed our families.