Is intraday timing of tops and bottoms method known by anyone?

[ddefina]

Wally, did your systems catch this rally today? I'm reinstalling the gap module into my system, as there have been few gap and traps the last two months. Of course everyone is thinking the same thing so this will change soon. I was using discretion today to go long and the price never retreated enough for me , Pretty good profit I gave up to save 4 points so far.

 

[wally_]

Quote from Walther:

To WarEagle,
To take two highs and low between is a starting point of timing approach to the TA. If one is to apply constant ratio of 1.62 or any other constant, it will not work simple because distance of two major point is not only one to be taken into equation. Size and speed of moves between significant points has to be considered too. I do it for Bonds and for Eminis with 75% or better accuracy.
Walter

To make things work you sometimes need to limit yourself to the circumstances in which they really work. There are no universal methods, some systems that work well for SP500 may not work for other futures. In tight ranges, breakout systems fail most often than not. Same is with timing. The method he talks about may work in some circumstances better than in others, the point is just to know when it works instead of trying to use it universally.

 

[wally_]

Quote from ddefina:

Wally, did your systems catch this rally today? I'm reinstalling the gap module into my system, as there have been few gap and traps the last two months. Of course everyone is thinking the same thing so this will change soon. I was using discretion today to go long and the price never retreated enough for me , Pretty good profit I gave up to save 4 points so far.

Yes, two of them are in, although at a pretty high price (still I am some 10 pts up with two of them as of the current price of 937.5), as they should anyway because these are breakout systems. The third one did not give any entry, but was biased in the long direction.

 

[WarEagle]

Quote from Walther:

To WarEagle,
To take two highs and low between is a starting point of timing approach to the TA. If one is to apply constant ratio of 1.62 or any other constant, it will not work simple because distance of two major point is not only one to be taken into equation. Size and speed of moves between significant points has to be considered too. I do it for Bonds and for Eminis with 75% or better accuracy.
Walter

Walter, you may be right. I don't know why he used that ratio, only that he really believed it to work. He claimed it worked for him in all the futures (he didn't trade stocks). I found it to be wrong as much as it was right, so I gave up on it a long time ago. The problem was that you could use enough highs and lows so that you had many turning points plotted on your chart and you were bound to get a few that were correct.

That is why I gave up on turning point prediction, cycles, moon phases, Elliot Wave, Gann, planetary stuff, etc., because, just as you say, one size does not fit all. Unfortunately, in my experience, one size rarely fit anything, and the "experts" in these fields always had some excuse as to why it didn't work "this time". Perhaps I just lacked the ability to pick and choose when to apply the techniques, which was enough for me to quit trying.

 

[Walther]

Quote from wally_:



To make things work you sometimes need to limit yourself to the circumstances in which they really work. There are no universal methods, some systems that work well for SP500 may not work for other futures. In tight ranges, breakout systems fail most often than not. Same is with timing. The method he talks about may work in some circumstances better than in others, the point is just to know when it works instead of trying to use it universally.

Agree with you on circumstances. Proper timing method works all the time but in strong trending markets one has to stay away from reversal signals.
Walter

 

[Walther]

Quote from WarEagle:



Walter, you may be right. I don't know why he used that ratio, only that he really believed it to work. He claimed it worked for him in all the futures (he didn't trade stocks). I found it to be wrong as much as it was right, so I gave up on it a long time ago. The problem was that you could use enough highs and lows so that you had many turning points plotted on your chart and you were bound to get a few that were correct.

Lary Williams was using ( I think ) 1.28 ratio which works better. No matter what timing( prediction ) method is used , it is a good idea to use it together with other proven method as an enhancer to that method. I am sure that any single indicator ( method ) can be greatly improved by using timing ( predicting ) method.
Walter