Is average consistent 3 R profit per month realistic?

[Businessman]

3R Average is possible, but the monthly Range will be something like -6R to +12R, or more likely even wider like -10 to +16.

It is approximately a bell curve (i originally typed hell curve by mistake haha, it can be hell for many months on end when you stay at the negative end of it by just plain bad luck).

Ideally the range would be something like -2R to +8R or narrower and in a perfect word never negative for the month (aka the Holy Grail)

 

[Businessman]

50 % WR with 1:2 RR 6 trades per mo
or 66.66 percent WR 9 trades per mo .
Result net profit 3 R per mo

Both those systems would make you rich through position sizing pretty quickly because they have long winning streaks, even the 50% system you quote, so you could size up quickly. Both those systems have high Sharpe ratios.

In reality the win rate is going to be in the 33% to 50% range, rather than the 50% to 66% range. So long losing streaks that come with below 50% win rate systems, prevent us from sizing up quickly.

The 50% system you quote has a 25% Kelly bet fraction, and the 66% system has 33% Kelly. That shows you how agressive you can be with them even if you only bet a fraction of Kelly.

You could start with a $5K account and bet half Kelly (16%) with that 66% 1:1 system, you would average approx $500K by year end.

In reality our win rate will be lower and half Kelly will be closer to around 5%, which means we can 'only' average $5K into $20K by year end, assuming you can handle the drawdowns that come with betting half kelly.